Seasonal employment adds to a tight job market that may not last: Don Pittis

Amid glitteringpiles of treats at the Lindtchocolate shop at Toronto's Eaton Centre, a potentialcustomer entering the store is welcomedby two smiling employees dressed in black.

On a midweekmorningemployees outnumber customers because at this time of year as at so many Canadian retailersand the companies that serve themthe shop has been on a seasonal holiday hiringbinge.

"It's about double," says store manager Paul Bullenof the number of holiday staff.

Seasonal bulge

The retailemployment bulge means apredicteddecline in Canadian employment growth may be pushed forwardat least a few more months. And those seasonal jobs, although not the high-tech, high-pay employment our economic leaders say is so important, are boosting the quality of Canada's future workforce.

Following a warning on the future of theCanadian economy this week, economistswill be watching Friday's Statistics Canada Labour Force Surveynumbers closely.

Those jobs numbers perform a dual function. Collected only weeks before their release, they vie with auto salesas one of thefreshest indicators of howthe wider economy has been doing in the recent past.

But the number and quality of the jobs created in any month are also the foundation for future economic strength in the public and private sectorsbecause a well employed population hasmoney to spend and incomes to tax.

Jobs prevent a slump

Not only that, but according to traditional economics, as indicated by the Phillips Curve,stronger employment is key to pushing inflationfrom its current low up to healthy levels.

In Canada's biggest cities, jobs growth is helping preventaslump in real estate prices, said Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz this week.

"Continued high rates of immigration associated with higher rates of job creation is the fuel for the demand for housing," said Poloz.

The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development,therich countries' think-tank, also weighed in on jobs this week. It describedhow, after a long period of stagnation, arise in wages hasbegun.

"The unemployment rate is down by three-quarters of a percentage point from a year earlier, and more people are coming into the labour force," observes the OECD's latest report on Canada released Tuesday. "Wage increases are still weak but are beginning to pick up, reaching around two per centover the past 12 months."

Moderate increases in wages are a good sign. Not only do they help to redistribute wealth in the economy, but theysignal that the deepreserves of available workers are gradually being used up.

Stepping-stone jobs

While seasonal retail jobs may not be the kind of work that a high-tech industrial economy would prefer, they are not all bad-paying, and the season seems to be getting longer, says Jodi Kasten, Canadian managing director for the job search company Indeed.

"We're looking at data from September, which is early, but all indications are that 2017 seasonal hiring has actually beat previous years," says Kasten. She says wages for the jobs her site posts run from $13 to $17an hour with truck delivery jobs for online sales some of the best paying. Training for those more technical jobs may be a reason for earlier hires, she said.

As for the least skilled, in the places I looked, there seems to be an inexhaustible demand for shop-front workers, with four help-wanted signs on a short block of Toronto's BloorStreet West.

One of the sourcesfor seasonal workers is Canada's universities and colleges, where classes often end in time for the seasonal rush, says Gail Langlais, director of career services for the University of Manitoba.

While they may not be the kinds of jobs the students imagine for their careers, Langlaissays short-term, relatively low-paying jobs are crucial for building the kindof high-level workforce Canada needs.

She says that while students are taking courses in high technology and academics,a retail job demonstrates someone has learned skills they might not have picked up in class.

Transferable skills

"They're the skills employers are looking for," said Langlais, pointing to things as simple as showing up on time andsmiling when you don't especially feel like it, to higher leveluniversal skills such as dealing with money and selling a product or idea.

"We really look for those transferable skills in individuals," she says.

It's well known that a short supply of entry-level positions as people join the job market during recessions can plague someone's entire career, as a lack of experience blocks advancement.

So far, the Canadian economy's job-creation engine has been outpacingthe supply of new workers, butthe OECD and the Bank of Canada warn that could change in the coming year, especially if high consumer borrowing andan overheated property marketturnto bust.

"Growth has been led by household consumption, which should slow as rapid job growth and wealth effects from house price appreciation abate," said the OECD.

But the OECD has been wrong before, and the extra jobs created bythe season of retail consumptionwill likely keep the gloomat bay for at least a few more months.

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