Large parts of B.C. have had low COVID-19 infection rates for weeks but outbreaks can happen fast

While B.C. as a whole is dealingwith climbing COVID-19 infections, someparts of the province particularly Prince George, the Kootenays and North Vancouver Island have gone weeks and even monthswith nearly no new cases of the virus.

Health Minister Adrian Dix called it "a tale of two pandemics," urging people in those regionsto keep following public safety guidelines to keep transmissions low.

According to numbers released Thursday, Vancouver Island recorded just 12cases of COVID-19 over the previous two weeks, while the Okanagan recorded 15. TheNorthern Interior, whichincludes Prince George, recordedjust one positive casein the last 10weeks, and theKootenaysonly 36 since the pandemic began.

"Yesterday we tested 1,265 people in the Northern, Interior and Vancouver Island health authorities, and found two cases of COVID-19, which is really a minusculerate of transmission," Dixsaid in an interview Friday morning.

Greater Vancouver, in contrast, has recorded more than 300 cases since August 7.

One obvious reason is the region's higher population. But the Fraser and Vancouver Coastal health authorities havealso consistently recorded higher infection rates per 100,000 people than other parts of the province, and for this Dix offered several theories.

Quick control of outbreaks

To start, he highlighted the fact that outbreaks in long-term care homes and hospitals which have driven up numbers in the Fraser and Vancouver Coastal health authorities aren't occurringelsewhere.

Proximity to the United States and the status of Vancouver as a travel hub were also cited as challenges.

"We've had uncontrolled transmission in Washington state and we have essential workers that do go back and forth, lots of people coming through the airport," Dix said.

Indeed, the few outbreaks recorded elsewhere in the province have beenlinked to travel.

B.C.'s northwest, for example, had an infection-free streak ended by an outbreak on Haida Gwaiithat waslinkedto off-island travel. Similarly, northeastern B.C. is dealing with a surge in cases connected to residents attending a religious event in Alberta.

And in Kelowna, a huge uptick was recordedfollowing aCanada Day marked by visitors attending private parties in the area.

But in all those examples, health officials quickly identifiedthe likely source of infection in time towarn others who may have been impacted to self-isolate.

Now, Haida Gwaii has no active cases andInterior Health has just 17, down from 88 four weeks ago.

Fewer young people, fewer parties

The lower number of young people in these regions could be factors, as well.

Dix said while young people attending private gatheringsare driving the province's new infections, people in B.C.'s north, Interior and on theIsland skew older, reducing the likelihood of similar transmissions.

But that doesn't mean there aren't risks.

On Monday, RCMP in Prince George confirmed they attended a weekend house party ofmore than 50 teenagers,sparking concerns of complacency in the city.

"It's really dangerous,"said Dr. JessicaZimbler, a Prince George-based physician."If this is the [gathering]that we know about, what's happening that we don't?"

She also saidpeople returning from summer vacation could pose a risk to the city's success.

"The worry is they come back from their travels and then congregate in Prince George before they're symptomatic, and then suddenly we have huge outbreaks in huge numbers," she said.

Dix echoed that warning, noting how quickly Kelowna, Haida Gwaii and Fort St. John saw infections spike into double digits following travel.

"I think the lesson is that this can come, and this can happen anywhere," he said. "Remain vigilant."