Luck and timing: How B.C. has managed to avoid the worst-case COVID-19 scenario

The day that 60-year-old Cathy Novak got the call from public health authorities on Vancouver Island saying she testedpositive for COVID-19, restaurants across British Columbia were already closing after a ban on gatherings of more than50 people was implemented.

That was March 16.

Five days later, 10deaths in the province were linked to the novel coronavirus, and Novak, a part-time dental hygienist who attended an international industry conference in Vancouver in early March that drew thousands of people, was struggling to breathe asshe lay in an ambulance on her way to a hospital in Victoria.

"At that point, I was feeling a bit hopeless," Novak said as she struggled to hold back tearsin an interview with CBCNews in herbackyard in Victoria.

"I don't know if I am coming backhome."

Within a few hours of arriving at the hospital her husband,John McAllister,learned she was placed on a ventilator.

"That was when the doctor told me that if we waited any longer, even one more day, it might have been too late," he said.

WATCH | Vancouver Island resident describes her experience:

COVID-19 survivor

4 years ago

Duration 0:59

Cathy Novak speaks about her experience being taken by ambulance to hospital with severe symptoms.

Shuttingdown spring break

In mid-March, with cases of COVID-19 rising rapidly and with outbreaks in multiple long-term care homes, it appeared that B.C. was poised to be hit particularly hard by the global pandemic.

However, in the months since, the province has been praised for flattening the curve ahead of other regions.

B.C. recorded Canada's first COVID-19 death on March 8 at the Lynn Valley Care Centre in North Vancouver.

• Read more about how COVID-19 spread through theLynn Valley Care Centre

The current COVID death rate in the province is approximately 33 deaths per million peopleone of the lowest among largejurisdictionsin Canada, the U.S. and western Europe.

Officials and health experts credit its success to a combination of sound decision-makingand good fortune.

"Part of it was timing, part of it was luck, and part of it was embracing what we needed to do and doing it together," said Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.'s provincial health officer, in an interview with CBCNews.

Thetiming of B.C.'s March break, which began on March 16, was fortuitous.

Unlike in Quebec, where spring break came at the start of the month,when school let out in B.C., health officials were already advising Canadians to cancel all non-essential trips out of the country.

It was a different message in Ontario however, which had March break at the same time asPremier Doug Ford on March 12 told a press conference: "I just want the families and their children to have a good time. Go away, have a good time, enjoy yourselves, and we're going to be monitoring the situation."

The government announced the same day that schools would be closed for two weeks following the break.

Beyond the timing of holiday travel, public-health expertssay the close co-ordination between the province's health authorities, as well as its management of long-term care homes, were factors inreducing transmission.

Care-home changes

"Initially, there was some fear experienced by the staff, by some residents and families," said Dr. Michael Schwandt, a medical health officer with Vancouver Coastal Health.

In the beginning, health-care workers were on the lookout for the typical cough and fever, but Schwandt said that by mid-March, the health region's testing strategy for care facilities was much broaderand included testing people who were dizzy, confused and had unexplained falls.

On March 27, the province issued an order to limit the movement of staff between care homes and announced that wages would be standardized so workers who typically do shifts at multiple facilities wouldn't face financial hardship. The province estimates that move is costingabout $10 million a month.

"That would have had a very significant damping effect on preventing this wildfire from hopping from one long-term care home to another," said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto.

While B.C.'s order came aboutthree weeks ahead of Ontario's decisionto restrict staff movement,it still took months to implement as care-homes had to sort out staffing schedules and wage structures

Gradually overthe past two and a half months, B.C's 501 care facilities have moved to single site staffing, with the process completed June 18.

B.C. was also among the provinces that weren't dependent on thefederal procurement program for personal protective equipment but was able to source and import gloves, masks, gowns and respirators through its ownsupply-chain management system.

Health officer in front of response

Throughout the public-health emergency, Dr. Bonnie Henry has been out front, updating the public on provincial transmission, as well as closures, restrictions and other safety precautions.

Furnesssaidthat has helped instillconfidence and credibility.

"If I could put us in a time machine, and I could send Ontario back to early March, I would have an effective expert owning the podium and doing the communication,'' hesaid, referring to the fact that Ontario'spremier has handled the majority of the briefings in his province.

While B.C. has been praised for its handling of the pandemic, and marked its first week with no COVID-19 deaths since March this Friday, Henry said she doesn't feel thatshe can slow down and take a breath.

There have been more than 45 outbreaks at care facilities in the province, including during the week of June 15.

WATCH | There's more work to be done, says Dr. Bonnie Henry:

B.C. not COVID-19 free yet

4 years ago

Duration 1:03

B.C.'s Provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry says despite its relative success, B.C. is not in the clear with COVID-19.

"We can never get it perfectly right," Henry said.

"It is really hard to look back right now, because we still have a lot of ways to go until we are out of this crisis."

B.C. has one of the lowest testing rates in Canadaand has chosen to recommend testing only for people with symptoms. That is a much different strategy than next door in Alberta, which has a slightly higher death rate than B.C.'sbut where testing is available to anyone.

Henry said a priority for the fall, when health experts say Canada will likely see a second wave of COVID-19, is to enhancecontact tracing by making the system for monitoring people who test positive more rapid and efficient.

Complacency concern

For Novak, it has now been more than two months since she was discharged from the hospital, and she is still gradually recovering. She was on the ventilator for 12 days and didn't realize how long she had been in a comauntil a nurse told her a few days after she regained consciousness.

"I couldn't sleep that night. I did a lot of reflecting and feeling lucky to be alive," she said.

But when Novakwas discharged in mid-April, her body was weakened. She was unable to even open a can of pop, and she found herself irritable and frustrated in those first few weeks.

She said she'sgrateful for the care she receivedbut is surprised at how little contact she has had from public health workers to check in on her progress.

"That has probably been the difficult partbecause we don't have a GP, and I feel like I don't really have the followup I thought I would have," she said.

Novak and her husband are sticking close to homeand say they will likely be the last people out mingling, because they aren't sure whether he ever contracted the virus.

"We are definitely worried about people getting complacent," she said.

"Hopefully, I will never get it again, but there are other people you could pass it on to, so that's still a danger."