Vancouver's rental prices are falling, listings analysis suggests

Vancouver's sky-high rental prices appear to have stopped increasing. Data from one analyst even suggests the price of units have dropped.

Blogger and data scientist Louie Dinhcompared theprices ofmore than5,700 Craigslist rental listings in March of this year with those in 2018.

He foundthe median price of one-bedroom units fell 3.8 per cent and two-bedrooms by 3.5 per cent, which in the three years he's tracked Vancouver's rental prices, he says, is"unusual."

"You typically expect prices to go up just a little bit each year because of inflation andtenant turnover," he said.

Dinh says when you factor in the cost of inflation, which istypically around two per cent, the drop is closer to fiveper cent, making it even more significant.

To him, it's an indication the overall market is slowing.

"Holistically, I guess it feels like things are starting to move in the right direction."

Not a trend, yet

Dinh says he's seen a continuous sharp upwards climb in rents since 2016.

But the downturnstarted September of 2018, he says, when he found the median price of a one-bedroom unit inch lowerfrom $1,950. It is now $1,900.

However, he won't call the slowdown a trend yet.

Neither will UBCbusiness and real estate professorTom Davidoff.

He agrees that rents were previously going upbut says the data is still mixed as to whetherrents are actually decreasing.

"What I can say with some confidence is between 2016 and 2018 rents rose sharply," said Davidoff. "There is less evidence of rising rents since then."

He points out thesurge in new rental housing thatis slowly being completed could eventuallylead to more supply than demand for once.

But, it's still not enough for him to make a predictionyet as to whether rents will decline.

Vacancy rate to rise

Eric Bond, an analyst with the CanadaMortgage and Housing Corporation, is forecasting those new units will help liftVancouver's historically low vacancy rate.

He says he expects the rate to rise from 1 to 1.1 per cent later this year.

By 2020, he believes it will increase to 1.3 per cent.

It will mean tenants will have more choices, but he notes prices may still remain high because new units will be replacing cheaper, older ones.

"Regardless, the market is expected to still remain tight," said Bond.

"But it does represent a slight easing of the market compared with what we've seen over the past five years."