Welcome to Alberta, a one-party province no longer

This opinion piece is by Doreen Barrie, a political scientist at the University of Calgary.For more information aboutCBC's Opinion section, please see theFAQ.

For anyone who has lived in Alberta for half a century, seeing two competitive parties contest a closely-fought provincial election was a novel occurrence.

The UCP should savour its victory because an Alberta election can no longer be considered a shoo-in for conservative parties, even if they unite. A seismic shift has occurred on the political landscape with the emergence of two competitive parties vying for power.

Although the UCP was victorious in the election one month ago today, the result was a couple of thousand votes from going the other way.

Until the New Democrats' victory in the 2015 election, the province experienced one-party dominance for 80 years, with the Social Credit party and then the Progressive Conservatives.

Danielle Smith pulled off a remarkable victory on May 29, but she will have choppy waters to navigate in the short term as she deals with numerous challenges. She will have to paper over the cracks in her caucus and convince corporate Calgary that her reign will provide stability and certainty for investors. She will also have to placate those in her conservative base to whom she owes a debt of gratitude.

Looking further out, there are much bigger hurdles for her party to overcome.

The two-lane road ahead

The province has changed, and the trajectory does not favour Smith's party.

Consider the second NDP breakthrough in Fortress Calgary a (small) miracle on the prairies for the party. When gains made by Rachel Notley's party in 2015 all but evaporated in 2019, the assumption was that the Natural Governing Party of Alberta would occupy its customary position well into the future.

The latest election result requires a re-assessment of the UCP's position in this politically shifting environment, especially in cities.

Though the rural/urban split was stark after May 29, Edmonton and Calgary had both been electing progressive mayors for more than a decade, Don Iveson and Amarjeet Sohi in one and Naheed Nenshi and Jyoti Gondek in the other. The provincial vote now aligns with the municipal vote to confirm the shift in thinking in the two places where most Albertans live.

There's also the prospect of younger generations willing to break free from their parents' and their province's conservative traditions. Most election polls showed younger Albertans leaning heavily toward the NDP.

This is significant because millennials now form a larger slice of Alberta's population (23 per cent) than baby boomers (21 per cent), according to Statistics Canada. And it will worry the UCP that recent surveys of the United Kingdom and United States found that millennials aren't becoming more conservative as they age.

Adding to this generational problem for Alberta conservative messaging is the fact more of Gen Z is about to reach voting age, given their keener concerns about climate change and social issues.

For a "youthquake" to occur, young people have to show up on election day, but voter turnout, especially among 18- to 24-year-olds, lags far behind their elders. The research shows that turnout improves with age another red flag for conservatives, if growing older no longer equates with growing more conservative.

In 1921, Alberta stepped out of the political mainstream for half a century, governed by the United Farmers and then Social Credit. A mainstream Canadian party, the PCs, won the 1971 election establishing dominance by becoming a fierce champion of provincial rights in energy and constitutional battles with Ottawa.

In such a political climate, it is not surprising that dissent had a whiff of disloyalty and was muted: to disagree with the PCs on anything was tantamount to being opposed to provincial rights and interests.

Similarly, Smith is characterizing her battle with the Trudeau government as an existential threat to Alberta sovereignty. However, without the towering majorities that premiers like Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein enjoyed, she cannot speak with the same authority.

With close to half of Albertans voting for the NDP, UCP can no longer claim to be the Voice of Alberta.Opposition has been legitimized.

A (healthily) divided Alberta

With a slim UCP majority and a strong opposition contingent in the legislature, Albertans will be treated to the rare sight of democracy in action. The Westminster-style parliamentary system works best with two competitive parties, with the Official Opposition able to challenge the dominant narrative.

Arguably, the NDP has already delivered effective opposition, most recently helping pressure the newly elected UCP leader to alter her Sovereignty Act and to make promises on a public health care guarantee and to hold a referendum on an Alberta Pension Plan.

With a larger-than-ever opposition, the NDP will have a larger team and caucus staff to do more work holding Smith's government to account, and devise alternative policy ideas.

The next few years will be a real test of Alberta's political maturity. Having enjoyed the experience of lively political debate, it is difficult to imagine Albertans regressing to the political apathy that prevailed when election results were a foregone conclusion. A thriving marketplace of ideas should make politics more interesting.