Chuckwagon races vs. leadership races: Saddle up for the Calgary political Stampede

This column is an opinion by Michael Solberg, co-owner of a Calgary government relations firm and co-host of a Stampede party. For more information aboutCBC's Opinion section, please see theFAQ.

Some people line up at the Calgary Stampede for hotcakes. Others come for hot takes. In among the 10 days of rodeo, country music and $12 beers, there exists a distinct subculture, as important to the Stampede's identity as the corn dog: the Stampede political circuit.

Politicians from all levels, ends of the spectrum and corners of the nation will descend upon Calgary donning their favourite western wear (some more convincingly than others). Stampede features dozens of politically-focused events that range from private soire glass-tipping to constituency association breakfast coffee-sipping.

Indeed, in the 10 days of Stampede, more back slapping and glad-handing is accomplished than the rest of the year combined.

I can say from personal experience that a handful of lobbyists will be kicking around, too.

It is the nation's biggest political petting zoo.

Hay bales and party membership sales

Given Calgary's traditional rightward tilt, it's an especially big event for conservatives. And this year carries special significance.

This year, the Stampede is centre-stage for two leadership races the Conservative Party of Canada and Alberta's United Conservative Party.

It would stand to reason that an aspiring leader in either conservative coalition would want to spend time among these crowds of thousands. After all, there is money to be raised, memberships to be sold, and hearts and minds to capture.

For provincial leadership hopefuls, a significant time investment at the Stampede must pay dividends. Wallets will be just as open to a making party donations as they will be to buying those pricey lukewarm Budweisers.

The $175,000 leadership entry fee remains a challenge for many candidates, and for some, the Calgary Stampede will be the difference between success and failure. We could also see frontrunners separate themselves from the rest on party membership sales, with the deadline for registrations coming up on August 12, less than a month after Stampede's end.

For the federal contest, no more memberships can be sold, and while Alberta has seen its membership size nearly double since the last leadership race, the voting rules give each riding equal weight.

The CPC membership, now 675,000 strong, saw significant growth in other parts of the country, namely in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec. There's inherent risk in spending time away from these budding areas of voter growth for too much time in one western city.

But not attending at all is perhaps an even greater risk. If you're absent from Stampede, you're noticeably absent; it can suggest you're ignoring Calgary during its marquee moment.

Justin Trudeau is wise to have shown up every year as prime minister (except last year), and Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley will try wooing locals at several events. Even federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and former Green Party leader Elizabeth May have attended Stampede events in the past, despite limited electoral success in the city and province.

How well a politician "Stampedes" is often the subject of post-Stampede debate. If you bomb, it's noticed.

Will they go on stage to raucous applause at the famous Cowboys tent? Or will they have barely two dozen people at their BBQ as they stand in their loafers instead of boots with their cowboy hat on backwards?

The flagship conservative event is the annual Calgary Heritage BBQ. The fundraiser was previously hosted by former southwest Calgary MPs (and movement founders) Preston Manning and Stephen Harper, and now current MP Bob Benzen.

Seeking the loudest yahoos

An unwritten tradition takes place during the introduction of dignitaries in attendance, which this year will include a plethora of federal and provincial leadership hopefuls. In the old Wildrose and Progressive Conservative days, a litmus test for electoral success was to wait and hear who got the louder applause during their introduction.

This year the test will be applied to these active leadership races and I, for one, will be bringing my applause-o-meter. I'll wager that Calgary local Pierre Poilievre will receive an ear-splitting welcome.

The stakes are high. Yes, there are leadership races afoot, but Alberta is also in the final year of its election cycle. As public opinion pollster Janet Brown's recent polling suggests, more Albertans today would consider voting for the UCP than the Opposition NDP in the 2023 provincial election.

The Stampede is a major opportunity for the UCP to crystallize these recent gains in public opinion before the dog days of summer take over. And for two sets of leadership candidates, it may be the last time Alberta's conservatives are paying much attention, because the dog days of summer after Stampede coincide with the time both races enter their home stretch.

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