What 'running out of water' could actually mean for Calgary

UPDATE: Calgarydeclares state of local emergency over catastrophic water main break

As Calgary enters its second week of water restrictions, and critical supply issues following the rupture of the city's largest water main, citizens have been inundated with messaging about water conservation.

Officials continue to warn residents thatCalgary could run out of waterif the effort to conserve water isn't their firstpriority.

"Calgarians, I need you to do more. And I know that's frustrating for you to hear, but there is still a real threat that we could run out of water," said Calgary Mayor Jyoti GondekThursday.

And on Friday, the mayor reinforced the message.

"If our water usage continues to trend up and our water supply can't keep up, the taps will run dry at some point."

WATCH | Calgary water crisis could last weeks, and Stampede is coming:

Calgary water shortage will take 35 weeks to repair

3 months ago

Duration 1:59

Emergency officials in Calgary have warned a burst water main that is drastically reducing the city's water supply will take three to five weeks to fix after a catastrophic break.

These are warnings that some residents will find ominous, or possibly even dystopian, and it puts the issue of water conservation directly in the spotlight.

But what could running out of water actually look like in Alberta's largest city?

One expert says the warnings aren't necessarily about running out of water, but insteadabout the pressure needed to move water through Calgary's large underground network of pipes.

It could have serious implications for emergencies, such as fighting fires and water access in hospitals, if taps run dry.

Tricia Stadnyk, Canada Research Chair in hydrologic modelling and professor with the University of Calgary'sSchulich School of Engineering, says it's really the city's treated water supply that's at risk right now.

"I know it's a big mystery to people that aren't familiar with water distribution or water supply, but it does highlight some of the vulnerabilities things that we take for granted every day as Canadians," said Stadnyk.

Time and time again, the city has been reminding Calgarians that crews are working 24/7 to get the near 49-year-old pipe back online.

The section of the feeder main that is being replaced is roughly seven metres long (23.5 feet), and the massivelabour-intensive repair process isn't a simple fix. And it's further complicated by the discovery of five additional "hot spots" that also require fixing repairs that could take anotherthree to five weeks, the city said Friday.

"Our experts say this is the most dramatic and traumatic break of a feeder main they have ever seen. This pipe is only at the halfway point in its life cycle. From all accounts, this should not have happened, but it did," said Calgary Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) ChiefSue Henryon Friday afternoon.

But in order to make sense of how this major break has impacted Calgary's treated water supply, it's important to understand the ways in which water moves through the city.

How the system works

Calgary has two water treatment plants:

• The Bearspaw Water Treatment Plant, which draws water from the Bearspaw Reservoir on the Bow River.
• The Glenmore Water Treatment Plant, which draws water from the Glenmore Reservoirfed by the Elbow River.

Built in 1975, the Bearspaw south feeder main, which is 11 kilometres long and as wide as two metres in parts, is Calgary's most critical water main. It runs directly from the Bearspawtreatment plant.

It's an integral part of Calgary's civic water system, transporting roughly 60 per cent of the city's treated water supply, while Glenmore is responsible for the other 40 per cent.

WATCH | Calgary's water main break, explained:

Why Calgary's water main break is a big deal

3 months ago

Duration 6:35

After a major water main break plunged Calgary's supply into a critical state, officials expressed concern that the city could run out of water. The reason? The impacted pipe is a key artery in the city's water infrastructure system. The longer it takes to repair, the more it puts water supply at risk.

Because the Bearspaw south feeder main suffered a catastrophic break on June 5, Calgary's water system has had to shift so that Glenmore the older, smaller water treatment plant is left to carry more of the water load. The city says it has ordered spare parts for that plant, and isdoing everything itcanto insulate it against experiencing mechanical failures.

According to Stadnyk, that plant isn't designed to serve all of Calgary alone like it is right now, which is why Calgary's treated water supply is at risk.

She also says a certain pressure must be maintained within the water system in order to distribute water across the city.

"The whole system works based on pressure. Because we have about 300 metres of elevation change across the city, the lower elevation you are, the higher the pressure, and so the easier it is to deliver the water to you," she said Thursday.

For Stadnyk, the unsettling idea that taps in Calgary homes could run dry doesn't feel like hyperbole.

LISTEN | Analysis on the city's water infrastructure:

Calgary Eyeopener8:50Calgary's water infrastructure

We talk to a civil engineering professor about the state of Calgary's water infrastructure.

"We could get to a point if those reserves get low enough where there's just not enough pressure to deliver to every part of the system, in which case people will see that they'll turn on their taps and no water will come out," she said.

"I don't want people panicking,thinking that they're not going to have access to drinking water, it's just that we might not get it delivered through our pipes in our house the way that we're used to."

As water worries rise, Calgary is still weeks away from any sort of resolution. And Stadnyk believes Calgarians aren't taking these concerns as seriously as they should.

"What people are forgetting is that this isn't an exact science either, because we can't predict how many fires will be in the city," she said.

"If it's your house that's on fire, of course you want the fire trucks to show up and be able to fight that fire. And that's why it's so critical that we maintain a minimum level and a minimum pressure within the system."

During one of the regular press conferences being held at the Emergency Operations Centre, the mayor echoed Stadnyk's concerns, offering what feels like a bleak message about the city's ongoing water supply issues.

"We are at a place where we don't have enough of a cushion for emergencies. Those emergencies include use in hospitals and in firefighting," Gondek said on Thursday morning.

"I want you to think about a fire truck pulling up facing a serious situation. They hook up to the hydrant, and dribbles of water come out. This could be a reality if we don't start conserving more water."

Fire department has backup plans

While Calgary remains under a citywide fire ban, the Calgary Fire Department (CFD)has developed contingency plans to continue responding to fires amidst the water shortage.

"[We]can draft or lift water from static water locations, including rivers, which have been determined andmapped in every district of the city," Chief Steve Dongworthtold the media on Friday."From these drafting locations, crews can either shuttle water the to the fire location or relay pump, which is a series of fire engines connected by hose from the static water location through high volume hoses to the fire."

Dongworth explainedthe CFD works closely with the city's water services department year-round to ensure there is adequate delivery through fire hydrants.

"Hydrant supply has been sufficient to extinguish fire emergencies over the past week," reads an email statement sent to CBC News on Thursday night. "Water services is providing up-to-date hydrant reliability maps to fire daily throughout this event."

The CFD says that, should hydrant supply become unavailable, it would follow these steps:

• Every fire engine has a tank supply of 2,500 litres of water.
• CFD has four water trucks that carry 7,000 to 11,000 litres of water drawn from static stations strategically throughout the city.

Calgary's firefighters won't be left to fend for themselves should the situation worsen further, either. That's because Alberta's provincial government has developed a mutual aid agreement with the city.

The statement from the CFD also outlined what this additional support from the provincial government would look like forestry helicopters and water bombers on standby to respond to any large fire events that the city may be left to deal with.

In a statement to CBC News, Ministry of Forestry and Parks press secretaryPam Davidsonsaid that government officials are meeting regularly with the city to provide support.

City doesn't want to be 'the big, bad wolf'

Calgary's supply also feeds the water needs of a few other municipalities, many of which have also enacted water restrictions.

LISTEN |Airdrie's mayor discusses water woes:

Calgary Eyeopener8:04Water restrictions in Airdrie

Neighbouring communities who get their water from Calgary are also being told to cut back this week. We check in on how things are going in Airdrie

All of this feels like the city and its regional partners could be in dire straits should this impact to our water supply continue. However, another water infrastructure expert isn't so sure it would ever come to that.

"They don't want to have to be the big, bad wolf in this case. They really want the city to come together and [conserve water] on their own," said Kerry Black, an assistant professor and Canada Research Chair with the Schulich School of Engineering in the department of civil engineering.

Black believes the message that we will run out of water is more of an indication that the city will need to step in.

"It's not a question of you're going to turn your tap onand the water's not going to run, because that's not the way in which Canadians manage their water typically," Black told CBC News.

"But it is going to be a question of what other measures are going to need to be put in place."

WATCH | Hear what was said at Friday evening's water main update:

Calgary city officials provide an update on critical water main break

3 months ago

Duration 23:43

City officials will provide an update on the latest on the water main break situation.

As it stands, Black says the city has been flexible with water restrictions, andthey've been asking nicely for citizens to reduce their water consumption. Calgary has only imposed Stage 4 water restrictions, which means outdoor watering is prohibited, meanwhile residents are only being asked to limit their indoor use.

This is because the system currently has a supply versus demand challenge that is at risk of being thrown out of balance, says Black.

"When they say 'run out,' it's because typically when we look at reservoir storage, we don't like to see it go below that one-third level. At that point, it triggers a very different conversation," she said.

"There really is no option to get to a place where there's nothing left in the reservoir and there's nothing left for emergency purposes. They will have different steps that the city will take in advance of that."

The city is considering indoorwater restrictions if Calgarians don't use less.

What are businesses doing?

Officials are alsoreaching out to some businesses to ask them to stop operations that need water.

"If we need to, the city has the ability to turn off water to a business if they are not complying with that ask," said Nancy Mackay, Calgary's water services director."This would be a last resort, and one we are prepared to take if need be."

Many people have been quick to blame businesses like car washes, but the mayor says roughly 85 per cent of them recycle water.The city also uses non-potable water for golf courses, and watering trees.

Rain is also in the forecast for Calgary this weekend, with Gondekreminding people this is an opportunity to catch and save water even in kiddie pools for use around their yards. She's also urging Calgarians not to collect water from the river for safety reasons, which many have been doing for their gardens, and instead use rain barrels over the weekend to collect rain water.

LISTEN | What permanent restrictions for outdoor watering could mean:

Calgary Eyeopener7:50Permanent water restrictions

Calgary is considering permanent outdoor watering restrictions. Would it work long-term?

When asked if officials could clarify what the city will do to make sure everyone has access to clean drinking water and to maintain the cushion for life-saving water needs, a spokesperson for the City of Calgary sent this email response to CBC News on Thursday afternoon.

"As we do with all emergencies, the city explores and develops contingency plans. Unfortunately, I am unable to get more information regarding hospitals, etc., for you at the moment."

The statement did not clarify what the contingency plans are, but in an interview with CBC News on Friday evening, Gondek said they'd have to consider their options.

"That's why I'm asking Calgarians right now to make sure that we avoid that at all costs.We would have to find ways to truck water," she told CBC Calgary News at 6 host Rob Brown.

"We would have to find some other solution. I know there's contingency plans. I haven't heard what they are yet, but right now, curbing our use is the best way to move forward."

WATCH | Calgary's mayor asked if she's the best messenger on the water crisis:

Water conservation the best way forward, says Calgary's mayor

3 months ago

Duration 7:53

Mayor Jyoti Gondek says Calgary taps could soon run dry if water use continues to trend upward. She spoke to CBC Calgary's Rob Brown about what would happen if they do.

The impact on hospitals

As for Calgary hospitals, in an email statement to CBC News, a spokesperson for Alberta Health Services (AHS) said they continue to have adequate water supply at all acute-care sites.

"We have plans in place to manage situations like this, which ensure patients continue to get the care they need. We are not having to postpone surgeries at this time," reads the statement issued Thursday.

"AHS has stockpiles of water as part of our overall loss-of-water contingency plan, and have had discussions with the Calgary Fire Department regarding the use of water tankers to connect to and support fire suppression systems as a contingency. This is not required at this time."

The spokesperson for AHS declined to elaborate on where these stockpiles are or what the details of its contingency plan would look like in practice.

Individuals responsible for majority of demand

Both water experts interviewed for this story agreed that the need to conserve water remains urgent.

To help people visualize why cutting back on consumption is necessary, Black described the water usage dilemma using the analogy of traffic gridlock on a major highway.

WATCH | Hear what Calgarians have to say:

Calgarians feel water conservation fatigue, and now there's weeks to go

3 months ago

Duration 0:39

Here's what some Calgarians Bernice Latkowski, Sarah Rance, Brynmore Gibson and Jose Cobarrubias had to say about efforts to conserve water before the city announced the repairs on a massive water main feeder would take up to five weeks.

"When a main water feeder line breaks, we have a different relationship [with our water]. Now, it's one that we have to rely on different networks of roadways," Black said, adding thatCalgary has over 15,000 kilometres of underground pipe.

"Right now, we're using more than what we can get to the homes. And so essentially, I've got too many cars on the road and when I have too many cars on the road, we're going to come to a standstill, that's what they're trying to avoid."

LISTEN | Tips on how to conserve water:

Alberta at Noon52:39Water conservation

Calgary remains in stage four water restrictions. So what are you doing to conserve water?

The average water use in Calgary was approximately 350 litres per person per day in 2023, according to the city's website.

Currently, businesses make up about 35 per cent of the total water demand, with residents making up the other two-thirds, according to Mayor Gondek, which is why city officials are directing their plea toCalgariansevery day.

But as people's ability and desire to keep up these water conservation efforts wane, the city's messaging continues to increase in severity.