Will you be better off when Manitoba overhauls its education property tax system next year?

Wab Kinew insiststhe NDP'supcoming overhaul of the education property taxsystem is a better approach than the one taken by the previous Manitoba government.

"I invite anyone to look ahead to the $1,500 homeowner tax credit we're bringing in and compare it to the cheques that the previous government mailed out," the premier confidently told reporters last month.

But if you're aproperty owner, are you really better off withthe upcomingNDPproperty tax credit of up to $1,500, or withthe existing package of education-tax rebates and credits the PCs offered?

It's not as easy an answer as Kinewhas suggested.

And frankly, it's a confusing subject for anyone who isn't proficientat number-crunching. There are various factors at play, rangingfrom the assessed value of your home to the tax rate your local school division charges.

That's one of the reasons people likeLeo Deurbrouck, who offerstax services by house call,have a steady income.

"I would say that nobody understands it, for the most part," he said of the refund system whether it's the PC or NDP version.

"It's very confusing because the government gives you a credit back and [people] ask, 'Well, why do we have to pay it in the first place?'"

'Most people don't even know what it's for'

Property owners have long received an education property tax credit, butin 2021, they started getting arebate, too.

The rebate arrived in the mail as a cheque. It wasn't asefficient as the provincesimply deducting theamount off your school taxes,said Deurbrouck, who runs Leo's Mobile Tax Servicein Steinbach.

"Most people just received the chequeand don't even know what it's for, and put it in their bank account and they're happy."

WATCH| What will the tax changes mean for homeowners?

What Manitoba's property tax overhaul will mean for you

5 months ago

Duration 4:48

If you're a Manitoba property owner, will you be better off with the education tax rebates and credits the PCs offered, or the upcoming NDP property tax credit of up to $1,500? It's not as easy an answer as Premier Wab Kinew has suggested. Provincial affairs reporter Ian Froese explains.

The Tories gradually increased the size of the rebate cheque, landing at 50 per cent of the taxby 2023.

The party said it planned to gradually increase the rebate amountuntil the tax was phased out entirely.

But then last fall's election swept a new party into office.

The NDP, now in government, is stickingwith the50 per cent provincial property tax rebate and $350 education tax credit for 2024, but this time, owners are getting a break at the source instead of acheque in the mail.

That all changes next year, when the existing rebate and tax credit will be scrapped in favour of a new credit of up to $1,500 off those taxes.

If that $1,500 credit exceeds your gross school taxes, you'll stop paying school taxes entirely.

The NDP has tried to keepits messaging on the policy change simple: the majority of homeowners will pay less.

Deurbrouckagreed that most people will be better off.

However, the government still expects to pocket an additional $148 million through the tax change.

How, you may ask?

Tens of thousands of property owners will pay more.

A quick way to find out if that's you: if your gross school tax,before any rebates or credits, ishigher than $2,301, you'llpay more.Generally speaking, homes with an assessed value at $437,000 or higher fall into that category.

However, the government's estimate comes with an asterisk: The figure isbased on last year's tax rates.

School taxes have since increased throughout the province, and may again in 2025.

The government estimated 17 per cent of homeowners will pay more, but because of the increases in school taxes, that percentage increases.

In some areas of Winnipeg, homes with an assessed valuejust above $400,000will pay more.

Middle class will hurt: PCs

The Progressive Conservatives, now the Official Opposition, say the change won't just hurtthe ultra-wealthy financially, but middle-class families as well.

Obby Khan, the party's finance critic, has called the NDP's plan a tax grab.

"I do appreciate that these houses are very expensive for some Manitobans, but that's also a lot of middle-class Manitobans," Khantold reporters in April.

Other property owners will pay more as well.

The new credit only applies to a person's main residence, meaning cottage owners won't get a break on their seasonal home.

Those who'lllikely lose the most financially from the NDP'sschemeare the owners of commercial or rental properties. They aren't scheduled to get anyrebates or credits.

"All those people are going to pay way more property taxes than they donow, because everybody was gettinga percentage back,"Deurbroucksaid.

Therebate for commercial properties was limited to 10 per cent under the PCs, rather than50 per cent for residential homeowners.

The NDP government has pledged to helpsmall businesses with their property taxesbut hasn't announced the details, or specified what itconsiders "small businesses."

Farmers who own property won't seeany change under the NDP's plan, as their 50 per cent rebate will remain.

When the NDP talks about its newcredit, which it has branded as the$1,500 homeowners affordability tax credit,the government's messaging has focused on the many people who will pay less.

But the government is also askinghigher-income individuals to shoulder a greater share of the tax burden, even if the NDP has beenreluctant to say it.