Support for Manitoba NDP rising in Winnipeg, while Tories' popularity dips: poll

Winnipeggers should expect some hotly contested races in the next provincial election, new polling numbers suggests.

Support for the Progressive Conservatives dropped three percentage points to 32 per cent of decided and leaning voters in Manitoba'scapital from last December, according toa Probe Research poll.

TheTories'support in the city is now below that of the surging NDP,whose support roseto 36 per cent, up from 30 per cent in December polling.

Premier Brian Pallister's team won 17 of Winnipeg's 31 seats in the last provincial election in 2016.

It seems the NDP's rise comes at the expense of theManitoba Liberals, which slipped four percentage points to be the preferred party of 23 per cent of voters surveyed in the poll.

No bump after PST cut

Outside Winnipeg, the Tories remain way ahead with 58 per cent of deciding andleaning voters on their side. The NDP have the backing of two of 10 voters, while the Liberals take 12 per cent, the poll said.

The Progressive Conservatives didn't seea jump in support after trumpeting a one percentage point cut to the provincial sales tax, noted Mary Agnes Welch, a partner at Probe Research.

"The single biggest takeaway from that latest provincial poll is that the bump in the polls that you might have expected the premier to get for cutting the PST,he didn't quite see," Welch told CBC Manitoba's Information Radio.

"In fact, he dropped a couple points," she said.

"He's perfectly positioned to go into the next election, whenever that may come, but this notion of a PSTcutthat's going to win some extra supportdidn't quite materialize," which she speculated was because the cut was widely expected by Manitobans.

The new quarterly poll surveyed 1,000 adults in Manitoba from Mar. 12-24, who were selected through randomdialling to include both landline and wireless phone numbers. A randomized sample of this size would yield a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1per cent.

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, the poll suggests Tories would be well on their way to a secondmajority government.

Provincewide, theyare supported by 42 per cent of decided and leaning voters surveyed (down twoper cent from December), whereas the NDPhave 30 per cent (up threeper cent), the Liberals have 18 per cent (down three per cent)and the Greens would take seven per cent (up fiveper cent) of voter support, the poll said.

Fifteen per cent ofvoters are undecided, according to the poll.

The PCs have historically had the backing of men, ruralresidents and those with a high school education or less, and that remains the case, while the Opposition NDP have higher levels of support among women, post-secondary graduates and Indigenous Peoples.

"It's that classic split that we see all the time in Manitoba," Welch said.

The poll's findings aren't earth-shattering by any means, saidChristopher Adams, a political scientist based at the University of Manitoba's St. Paul's College. A shift of afew percentage points here and there is mainly within the statistical margin of error, he said.

But he argued the Liberals should be concerned they'relosing ground. He wonders if the provincial party has been hurt by public reaction to the federal party's handling of theSNC-Lavalin affair.

Manitoba Liberal Leader Dougald Lamontsaid it's up to him and his party to convince Manitoba voters they're different.

"Ultimately, our challenge is always to say how we're going to be differentnot just from the federal Liberals, but how are we different from the NDP and PCs as well."

Tories in majority territory

The big winner in this poll is the Tories, evenif their popularity has slipped, said Paul Thomas, professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

"You would never expect to hold the level of support you had back in 2016 when you won a record victory and you promised to make some tough decisions on budgetary matters and health changes," he said.

Considering that, the party's showing in this poll is"pretty good," said Thomas.

He said the findings may entice Pallisterto call an early election though he also said it's possible Pallister's recent suggestions of an early call aresimply a matter of playing mind games with the opposition.