Once the possibility of opening Portage and Main became real, support for the idea plummeted

Was the campaign to open Portage and Main to pedestrians doomed to fail?

On Wednesday, 65 per cent of those who cast a ballot in Winnipeg's civic election voted to keep the iconic intersection closed to pedestrian traffic.

The results showed a massive geographic divide: on the one hand, a relatively small number of people clustered in walkable urban neighbourhoods (Wolseley, Osborne Village, Old St. Boniface) expressed strong support for the Yes side, whereas the overwhelming majority of Winnipeggers who live in car-dependent suburbs voted No.

This chasm is deep and powerful and if those who want a more walkable, livable, connected downtown are to bridge this urban-suburban divide, the Portage and Main debate offers key lessons on how challenging it will be.

A Probe Research survey commissioned by CBC Manitoba in August suggested a No vote was the likely outcome: The survey found only 28 per cent of respondents would vote "Yes" to opening Portage and Main, with two-thirds (66 per cent) indicating they would vote "No" in the non-binding plebiscite (six per cent were undecided).

The poll also suggested once the possibility of opening Portage and Main became real, support for the idea plummeted.

Probe Research has gauged support for opening the intersection for more than 20 years, with support rising slowly but steadily over time. However, after the election campaign started, support for opening Portage and Main plunged to 33 per cent from an all-time high of 42 per cent recorded in 2016.

Clearly, Team Open faced an uphill battle convincing Winnipeggers particularly those in suburban areas of the merits of opening Portage and Main. (And to be fair to the volunteers behind the Vote Open campaign, they poured passion and great effort into this cause.)

But over the course of a campaign, residents can be swayed by strong arguments. Were there winning messages that could have convinced Winnipeggers to vote Yes?

Probe Research analyzed data in what's known as a regression, or a driver analysis, to measure the impact of the different arguments for and against opening Portage and Main. Only one argument for opening the intersection the notion that Winnipeg should create a more pedestrian-friendly downtown resonated strongly with residents.

Some of the other key arguments offered by proponents of opening Portage and Main, such as the need to make it more accessible and that property owners in the area support opening the intersection, barely registered with citizens.

On the other hand, despite the fact an organized "No" campaign did not exist, the key arguments of those opposed to opening Portage and Main collectively resonated very strongly with Winnipeggers.

'Status quo' arguments

Chief among them was the argument that pedestrians would be at risk if they could cross Portage and Main above ground, with arguments against spending money to remove the pedestrian barriers and concerns about the effect on traffic closely aligned with opposition to opening the intersection.

Winnipeggers also bought strongly into "status quo" arguments, such as the argument that there is no point in opening the intersection and that opening it will do nothing to encourage downtown revitalization.

Given how lopsided the final vote was, many will say there was nothing Team Open could have done to convince the majority of Winnipeggers to vote Yes in the plebiscite.

While this belief may help demoralized Yes supporters cope with the sting of losing so soundly, the Yes side really required a better understanding of how their key messages were resonating particularly with the suburban voters they ultimately needed to convince, and not just those living within walking/cycling distance of Portage and Main.

Those who desire a more urban, pedestrian-oriented downtown must recalibrate their arguments to address suburban Winnipeggers' default fears of grinding traffic and longer commutes.

While the opportunity to do this has almost certainly closed on Portage and Main, it is not too late to begin identifying how to convincingly make that case in the future.

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