Will we be doing this all over again very soon?

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What does it mean, really, if no one winds up with a majority Monday night?

Sure, everyone could try and work together nicely.But, if our history is any indicator, that goodwill won't last long.

We tapped polls expert extraordinaire ric Grenier to take one last look at how this could all go down.

The Breakout

By ricGrenier,@EricGrenierCBC

Polls suggest Franois Legault's Coalition Avenir Qubec iswithin a whisker of a majority government.

But the math looks tricky.

To win a majority government with less than one third of the vote would be nearly unprecedented and perhaps increase the pressure on the CAQ to follow through with its promise (and that of the Parti Qubcois and Qubec Solidaire) to implement a new electoral system.

But it is possible, because the CAQ is in an unprecedented position. It is retaining a lead in the polls everywhere off the island of Montreal and, more importantly, its opponents are divided.

Neither the PQ nor QS has emerged as the CAQ'sconsensus rival among francophones, while the Liberals have fallen to fourth place in some polls among this election-deciding demographic.

If the CAQ's edge holds over the weekend, and if enough close contests fall Legault's way, it is very easy to imagine that his party will emerge with the 63 seats it needs for a majority on Monday.

For that to happen, there would have to be no ballot box bonus essentially, an unexpected bump in support for the Liberals and a further deterioration of the PQ's vote.

Even a PQ vote that goes to Qubec Solidaire rather than to the CAQ works in Legault's favour, because the CAQ is targeting a lot of PQ-held ridings where QS is not a factor.

If the opposite occurs, however, then the province is certainly on track for a minority.

There have only been two minority governments in Quebec's modern history, and neither of them made it to their second birthday. We could be doing this all over again very soon.

Housekeeping

Be sure to check out the Quebec Poll Tracker page, which ric will update throughout the weekend as more polls are released.

Oh, and if you have lingering questions or just want to check out what's on your fellow voters' minds, join us Sunday night at 6 p.m. for a live election Q&A with ric andour political expertJonathan Montpetit on our Facebook page.

ICYMI

• Many ridings in the Eastern Townships have been Liberal strongholds for years, but that isn't a sure thing anymore. As the CAQ gains momentum, it's possible some ridings will turn a lighter shade of blue Monday night. Read more

• What's an election without election-time promises? The parties have been making a whole bunch, and we've been keeping track. Need help figuring out what each party says it will do for you? Check out our story.
• Abdul Waheed is a chemist with two master's degrees. He came to Quebec five years ago, confident he would get a job in his field. Instead, he works at a call centre. He wants the provincial politicians to figure out ways to help people like him. Read more
• Once a perpetual runner-up, Manon Mass is making big waves this election. Her popularity has even drawn the attention but mainly, the ire of the Parti Qubcois. So, how did she do it? We looked into it.

And that's it, dear Ballot Briefer. High five! We've nearly made it to the finish line. We'll be back with a special election day edition Monday that's packed with everything you need to know to cast your ballot.

We hope to see you in our Facebook Live Q&A Sunday evening.

la prochaine,

-Melinda Dalton, social media editor