Quebec's Liberals and the lessons of Machiavelli

In Machiavelli's handy 16th-century guidebook for rulers, he advises "do all the harm you must at one and the same time."

This way, Machiavelli writes in The Prince, the people are unlikely to notice the full extent of the harm done to them and won't be as angry.

When it comes to doing good, though, the Florentine suggested slowing the pace: "Do good ... little by little, so people can fully appreciate it."

It is an adage the Quebec Liberals seem to have taken to heart, judging by Finance Minister Carlos Leitao's fall economic update.

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Elected in 2014, the Liberals spent the first two years of their mandate drawing the reins of public spending.

Consolidated government spending increased by 5.1 per cent in fiscal 2013-2014. It went up by a meagre 0.9 per cent the following year, and 0.7 per cent for 2015-2016.

That is an enormous reversal over a short period of time.

Short-term pain

The Parti Qubcois, unions and various activist groups have stressed the harm done by the reduction in spending.

To choke off program funding so drastically, they say, amounts to austerity, a word PQ leader Jean-Franois Lise repeats almost compulsively when discussing the Liberals.

Austerity is a dirty word in most circles, conjuring the social unrest in places like Greece (and sundry other Euro Zone destinations) that accompanied zealous efforts to deal with debt issues.

The provincial government, and many commentators, argue the term is ill-applied to the Quebec situation. Unlike in the European case, government spending here never actually "cut," it simply increased at a slower rate.

Fair point. But social programs like health care and education require annual funding increases to meet a certain threshold in order to maintain their current service levels.

For instance, the Institut du Qubec estimates the province's health system needs its funding increased by 4.2 per cent next year to cover annual cost increases brought on by demographics and inflation.

The Liberals, however, only allotted a 2.4-per cent increase in their March budget.

So while technically funding hasn't been cut, less money is going into the system and as a result services have to be reduced.

Quebec ombudswoman Raymonde St-Germain, in a 2015 report, found health-care services had become so starved for funds that patients rights were being violated.

Be it exhausted nurses, teachers stuck in decrepit classrooms or seniors angered by a lack of services, there are no shortage of Quebecers ready to testify about harm they've experienced from the government's fiscal restraint.

Doing good, little by little

But Leitao's economic update last week signaled that period of restraint is over. "Now that the house is in order we are able to make choices about the priorities of Quebecers," he said, revealing the province is sitting on a $2.2-billion surplus.

If the period of restraint was painful, at least it was short: so goes the Machiavellian logic.

And with extra cash in hand, the Liberals can spend in ways they hope will make voters forget the toil necessary to produce the surplus in the first place.

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True to Machiavelli's dictate, however, there will be no bacchanalian feast at the government's coffers, no gorging at the public trough.

The surplus will be measured out, distributed carefully, at select intervals, ensuring the public can savour every bite.

From the 0.7 per cent increase last year, consolidated spending will be up by 3.8 per cent by the end of this fiscal year and up another 2.3 per cent in 2017-2018.

The Health Tax will be eliminated a bit sooner than expected, amounting to a few hundred extra bucks for the average Quebec family.

There will be an extra $400 million for infrastructure, but teased out over a ten-year period. To that, add modest reinvestments in health and education.

Short of something sweeter, these morsels will have to satisfy the appetite of voters. Chewed on long enough, they may even help forget the bitter taste of what came before.