The six, or nine, or 14 ridings that may determine the election

In a close election, every vote countsand every riding is important.

But when party campaign strategists look at a map of New Brunswick's 49 constituencies, they focus on some more than others.

For the Progressive Conservatives, under Blaine Higgs,to hold on to power or for Susan Holt's Liberals to succeed in ousting them a handful of key races are must-wins, many of them in the three largest cities.

The Green Party's clout in the next legislature is also in play.

WATCH |Key ridings in this election explained:

New Brunswick votes: Key ridings explained

27 days ago

Duration 3:25

Want to watch the election like a true analyst? Heres a look at the six ridings that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.

The uncertainty in those pivotal ridings was evident among voters late last week in Rockwood Park in Saint John, a city with at least two pivotal ridings.

"I'm not entirely decided," Paddy Huizinga said.

"It used to be there wasn't that big of difference between one party and the other, and now there is."

Madison Kelson said her riding of Saint John Harbour seemed "pretty close."

Robert Collette said one candidate at his door "seemed like a nice fella, but because of the party leader, I told the gentlemen, 'If it wasn't for the party leader, I'd probably vote for you.'"

A party needs to win 25 seats to have a majority government.

Heading into the campaign, the PCs held thanks to departures and defections 25 seats, compared to 16 for the Liberals and three for the Greens. There was one independent MLA and four seats were vacant.

Here are six key ridings that, if they all go Liberal, could deprive the PCs of that majority.

Fredericton South-Silverwood

This new riding includes part of the former Fredericton South, which Green Leader David Coon won in 2020, and part of Fredericton West-Hanwell, where there is a strong PC voting history.

Liberal Leader Susan Holt is on the ballot here and is not a shoe-in. Holt lost badly to Coon in Fredericton South in 2018, and in 2020 the PCs had more votes within the contours of the new riding.

Saint John Harbour

This constituency in the Port City's urban core has swung between PCs and Liberals recently, sometimes by narrow margins.

Arlene Dunn won it comfortably for the PCs in 2020, but the race was decided by just 10 votes in 2018, 71 votes in 2014 and seven votes in 2010.

If Liberal candidate David Hickey, a city councillor, can't win, it doesn't bode well for his party provincially.

Saint John Portland-Simonds

The area was represented for 25 years by PC MLA Trevor Holder, one of six elected members who rebelled against Blaine Higgs last year over Policy 713 and his leadership style.

Holder opted not to run again.

Whether the turmoil costs Higgs this seat or others is up to voters.

The Liberal candidate also has a history with Higgs: Dr. John Dornan was fired by the premier from his position as Horizon Health CEO. He later won a wrongful dismissal lawsuit against the province.

Moncton East

Moncton is another make-or-break area for the election.

Moncton East has been redrawn since the last election, when PC candidate Daniel Allain won it and became the only francophone member of Higgs's caucus for two years.

Without Allain on the ballot, the Liberals see an opportunity to flip a riding from the PCs.

Miramichi Bay-Neguac

The Liberals won here easily in 2020, but Rjean Savoie picked it up for the PCs in a 2022 byelection and became the second francophone PC MLA and cabinet minister in the Higgs government.

The Liberals hope to win it back.

Champdor-Irishtown

This is a new riding carved out of parts of the old Moncton East riding and some areas that were previously in Kent South.

There is a Liberal voting history here so the party sees this as a potential gain.

Other ridings that may be pivotal

The PCs would be reduced to 24 seats if the Liberals sweep all six of those constituencies one short of a majority.

But the Liberals would rather have a majority and not rely on the Green Party to pass budgets and legislation.

In Fredericton North and Miramichi East, they believe there's a chance they can defeat PC candidates Jill Green and Michelle Conroy.

And they are hoping that former federal PC MP John Herron, running as a Liberal, will defeat PC candidate Faytene Grasseschi in Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins.

Many longtime PCs who opposed Grasseschi's candidacy are backing Herron.

Winning those three additional seats would give the Liberals a 25-seat majority assuming nothing else changes.

PC pickup possibilities

The Progressive Conservatives are generally playing defence in this election, but there are some races where they hope to upset seemingly solid Liberal incumbents.

In Bathurst, in a seat that has been Liberal for almost a century, Mayor Kim Chamberlain is running for the PCs.

She may be their best shot of gaining a seat in the predominantly francophone north, though Liberal Ren Legacy's high profile and likely cabinet role make it a tough climb.

And in Moncton Centre, Liberal incumbent Rob McKee is confronting newly redrawn riding boundaries.

It now takes in parts of the former Moncton Southwest riding that were solidly PC in 2020.

Greens under pressure

The election isn't a cakewalk for the three Green candidates running for re-election, either.

Two in particular are facing new challenges.

Coon's Fredericton South riding was cut in two by the electoral boundary redistricting.

He is running in Fredericton Lincoln, a fusion of parts of his old riding, where he won handily last time, and new areas which have voted strongly PC in recent elections.

Kevin Arseneau, another Green MLA in the last legislature, is facing a challenge in Kent North from Pat Finnigan, a well-liked former two-term federal Liberal MP.

A win by Finnigan wouldn't change the overall math for the PCs but it could be the difference between a Liberal majority or minority.

The same goes for Tracadie, which the Greens hope to grab from the Liberals.

Green candidate Serge Brideau, the well-known lead singer for the Acadian rock group Les Htesses d'Hilaire, won 35.4 per cent of the vote in the 2023 byelection in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-St. Isidore, which Holt won.

This time he is running in Tracadie against two-term Liberal Keith Chiasson.