A stupendous shift in Newfoundland and Labrador politics: How did we get here?

All the signs point to a dramatic shakeup on the Newfoundland and Labrador political scene, with the long-suffering Liberal Party all but assured of a convincing victory in Monday's provincial election.

Repeated polls have placed the Liberals in the upper stratosphere of popular opinion, revealingan electorate that appears anxious for change in the traditional cycle of power in the House of Assembly.

It's the Liberals' turn, it seems, to govern.

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It's all instark contrast to just four years ago, when the Liberals eked out Opposition status, and the man now poised to become premier struggled to simply get elected.

Some of the biggest questions waiting to be answeredon election night arewhether the Grits, led by west coast businessman Dwight Ball,can sweep all 40 electoral districts, how much of the Progressive Conservative machine will be left standing, and whether the New Democratic Party, the perennial third-place finisher, can finally win enough seats to form the Official Opposition.

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There's even a real possibility that two party leaders could lose, according torecent district-level polls.

BothPC Leader Paul Davis, the former police constable and the cancer survivor whobecame premier just 14 months ago, andNDP LeaderEarleMcCurdy, aretired fisheries union president looking to earn his first seat in the legislature, are in tough battles forpolitical survival.

It's hard to imagine such questions being asked just a few years ago, withthe Tories holding a firm grip on power and the Liberals slowly rebuilding from some of the darkest days in the party's long and storied history in Canada's most easterly province.

The Danny Williams era is long gone

So,how did we get here?

Why have the PCs fallen from grace, while the Liberals appear ready to bulldoze theirway back into power after more than a decade on the sidelines?

A lot has happened since Danny Williams, the feisty and flashylawyer and businessman, unexpectedly stepped down as the province's ninth and some would argue most popular premier five years ago this month.

Williams and the PCs stormed to power in 2003, ending the Liberals' 14-year hold on government.

It was a tumultuous time, and like today, the electorate was thirsty for change.

The left's long-held dictum that Tory times are hard times initially proved true, with Williams taking severe measures to control spending.

Money flew like a gusher

But then oil money started to flow like a gusher, and the mining industry also took off. On top of that,thousands of residents benefited from fly in-fly out jobs in the Albertaoilsands.

Williams oversaw an unimaginablelevel of economic growth during his seven years at the helm, including the shedding of the much-hated "have-not" label. Newfoundland and Labrador stopped receiving equalization payments in 2008.

There were surplus budgets, record job growth and spending, and unprecedented confidence and optimism.

Williams wasrewarded with a landslidevictory in 2007, with the PCs winning all but four seats and taking nearly 70 per cent of the popular vote.

The Liberals? Reduced to just three seats.

Williams made national headlines with his heated battles with successive prime ministers, and there were massive deals in the oil and gas and mining sectors, including an ownership stake for the province in projects such as theHebronoffshoreoil field.

Then, in late 2010, Williams announced that the Lower Churchill Project would become a reality. A few weeks later, he shocked the entire province by announcing hisresignation.

Not an immediate tumble

The Tory tumble wasn't immediate, however. Hissuccessor, KathyDunderdale, led the PCs to a third massive majority victory in 2011, and Liberal support actually fell to its lowest point in history.

But it was soon obvious the Torybluesheen was wearing thin, andmost observers agree that Williams' departure was a turning point for the party.

The government's popularity started plunging even before the 2011 election, and a series of debacles, including the controversialBill 29, which ushered in tighter restrictionson access to information laws, fed into a growing sentiment that the Tories were becoming increasinglyarrogant.

A series of extended province-wide power blackouts during an especially cold period in January 2014 that became known as #darknl, two high-profile defections to the Liberals, and a half-dozen byelection losses further eroded support for the PCs.

There was a dramaticleadership vacuum, a controversy over a cancelled paving contractand a steady parade of high-profile cabinet ministers making their way to the exit, knowing the good ship SS Torywas heading for stormy seas.

And it hasn't helped that last year's collapse in oil prices has crippled the province's economy, with the political debate now focused on issues such as job reductions, spending cuts and ballooning deficits.

Davis took over as leader of a party that had fallen from grace, and despite what many say is a noticeable maturing of his leadership style and solid performances in a series of debates, he's been unable to reverse the Liberal tide.

And let's not forget there'sstill a bright political afterglow from the recent majority win by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal team.

In political terms, it's been a perfect storm for a government that many view as long in the tooth.

It's hard to imagine any dental sedative that will make this political extraction any easier to swallow for the PCs.