Hurricane season: Will the Atlantic be busier this year?

The National Hurricane Centre has released its outlook for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.

Following a few quiet years, NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration) is forecasting a season closer to the 30-year average in the Atlantic.

The forecast

The NOAA forecast includes:

• 10 to 16 named storms, which includes January's Hurricane Alex.
• Four to eightof those storms to become hurricanes
• One to fourof those storms to strengthen to Category 3 strength or more.

This forecast lines up with the highly respected Colorado State University (CSU) forecast, which is also calling for a near-average season. The U.K.Met Office, as well asprivate companies WeatherBell and WSI,are predicting slightly above average seasons.

Plenty of factors

This year is a morechallenging season to predict than most. So many factors come into play when the most powerful storms on earth are developing in the Tropical Atlantic basin.

A transition from El Nino to La Nina is currently underway and those surface water temperatures in the Pacific have a large impact on hurricane development conditions in the Atlantic.

The "wildcard"in this year'sforecast is the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, or AMO. We've been in a positive or warm phase of the AMO since 1995 and those conditions favour higher hurricane activity, with warmer sea surface temperatures and a strong West African monsoon.

However, the more quiettropical activity of the past threeyears, plus the current conditions in the Atlantic, may be a signal that we're entering the negative or cooler phase of the AMO, one that leads to fewer hurricanes.

As we near the "official"start of hurricane season on June 1, sea surface temperatures the North Atlantic are cooler than average right now. That said, in the Tropical Atlantic are water temperatures are running warmer than average. So some uncertainty remains.

What is certain?

Hurricane season officially begins Wednesday,and as Hurricane Juan and HurricaneIgor prove, it only takes one to have a big impact.

Be prepared and be sure to stay tuned to the forecast in the coming months.

• Read more by CBC'sRyan Snoddon

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