New poll suggests Liberals are in a tighter race to retain power

A poll released by Narrative Research Wednesday suggests Liberal support isn't as strong as it has been in recent years and that both opposition parties are making gains in this provincial election.

A telephone survey of 540 Nova Scotiansconductedbetween July 27 and Aug. 9 shows satisfaction with the government of Iain Rankin remains high at 61 per cent, but that is significantly lower than the 75 per cent approval rating it received in a Narrative poll conducted in May.

When it comes to the voting intention of the 277 decided voters polled, 40 per cent said they would back Liberal candidates, 31 per cent said they would vote PC and 27 per cent were ready to support the NDP. The Green Party of Nova Scotia garnered two per cent support.

Based on the sample size, there is a 5.9 per cent margin of error.

When it comes to which candidate would make the best premier,34 per cent of the 540 people polled putRankin at the top, followed by PC Leader Tim Houston at 24 per cent support. NDP Leader Gary Burrillranked third at 17 per cent.

A similar 17 per cent said they did not know, or would not say, who would make the best premier. Interim Green Party of Nova Scotia Leader Jessica Alexander was the choice of three per cent of those polled.

A sample size of 540 people has a margin of error of 4.2 per cent.

Sound Off: Election Edition - Breaking down the party platforms

3 years ago

Duration 4:13

Party platforms, planks and political positions are coming into focus. In some cases, there are some interesting role reversals.

In a company news release, Margaret BrigleyNarrative Research's CEO said, the "results indicate that there has been a shift in momentum and voting intentions."

"One important variable that we will be watching is voter turnout," she said. "The ground game for each of the parties will determine the outcome of the election.

"The lower the overall voter turnout, the greater the likelihood of an upset."

Brigley also noted the 61 per cent support for the overall performance of the government was significant.

"In the experience of our company, we have never seen a government NOT re-elected when it enjoys performance satisfaction levels over 50 per cent," she said.

The poll resultssuggest the Liberal plan to call a summer election to secure an easythird consecutive majorityis in jeopardy. But Rankin shruggedoff that suggestion when responding to questioning from reporters in Cape Breton.

"We're on the right track," said Rankin at a campaign event outside a fire station in Sydney. "No matter where we go in this province, Nova Scotians want us to keep moving forward, keep making the investments that we are."

He also used a second question on the poll results to take a swipe at the PCs.

"I think it's really important that we focus on our leadership role in this province, as we see cases rising across the country with Conservative-led governments, and I don't think Nova Scotians want to go there," said Rankin.

Opposition reaction

The opposition party leaders see something different in the poll results.

"It's a sign that people want change," Houston said in Eastern Passage."People are ready for change.

"They're looking at their options and they are increasingly losing confidence in Iain Rankin and the Liberals."

Burrill offered a similar response at his party's daily news event in Halifax when he was asked to respond to the numbers.

"They absolutely reflect the conversations that I'm have been having and that have been reported to me through our candidates."

When he inherited the party leadership from Stephen McNeil last February, Rankin took control of a party with a majority of seats in the Nova Scotia legislature. But McNeil'sresignation, and that of his former cabinet colleague Margaret Miller, left the party in a minority position when the House was dissolved on July 17.

Election day is Aug. 17. According to Elections Nova Scotia, 90,446 early votes were cast as of Tuesday. That's roughly double the number of people who voted early at this stage ofthe 2017 general election.