'No lid on the pot anymore': Sharp COVID-19 rise concerning health experts, leaders

Just when you may have feltlike the pandemic is over, data and health experts are here more than two years in to remind you: it's not.

Coronavirus found in Ottawa's wastewater currently the most accurate way to measure the spread of COVID-19 continues to climb and setmore recordseach day, far exceedingthe amount in January's Omicron-driven wave.

Key numbers such as hospitalizations, test positivity and outbreaks have also been rising.

"There's a bit of concern right now because the wave [is]higher than predicted," said Earl Brown, a virology expert and professor at the University of Ottawa.

"The pandemic is definitely not over The hope is that those infections won't be too severe."

Manyhealth officials predicted increased transmission as restrictions were lifted in March and the Omicron BA.2 subvariant picked up speed.

The concern, experts said, would be whether boomingCOVID casesoverwhelmed hospitals. It's unclear if that will happen.

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While hospitalization rates remain relatively low, they lag behind infection rates. Data throughout the pandemic suggests hospitalizations in Ottawapeak one week after wastewater levels peakwhich has not happened yet.

"You don't want to get to a point where you've got too many cases, can't handle them and say, 'Well, we wish we did something,'" said Brown.

Hard to translate wastewater level to case number

Tyson Graber, co-lead investigator of the COVID-19 wastewater project in Ottawa, saidthe record-setting amount of COVID inwastewater doesn't necessarily mean there are more people infected.

It's"really difficult to equate wastewater data to the number of cases because that equation changes or is expected to change between variants," he said.

Still,the lack of public health restrictions coupled with rising levels of COVID iscause for concern, he said.

"I think there's definite concern that it could go higher. There's really no lid on the pot anymore."

Graber said that even if it's an overestimate, it's better than underestimating the numbers.

WATCH | Wastewater's relationship to hospitalizations:

Better immunity may mean less severe illness despite wastewater spike, researcher says

2 years ago

Duration 1:07

Tyson Graber, co-lead investigator on Ottawa's coronavirus wastewater monitoring program, says existing immunity to COVID-19 may blunt the effects of a sixth wave, keeping hospitalization rates lower than in previous waves.

Local health leaders send message to residents

There were 23Ottawa residents in local hospitals for treatment of active COVID-19 in Thursday's Ottawa Public Healthupdate, with a rise this week bringing this number back to what it was in mid-February.

Its count of allpatients with COVID-19, regardless of where they live or whether COVID brought them to the hospital, has also risen.

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That andthe rising local test positivity rates for those still eligible for a PCR test worries hospitalchiefs of staff and medical officers of health in Ottawa and its surrounding eastern Ontario health units.

They issued a joint news release Thursdayencouraging peopleto do four things: get vaccinated with everydosethey areeligible for, limit close contacts, wear a mask in indoor public spacesand stay home if sick.

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Those actions will hopefully help stem the burdenfacing the health-care system during this wave, which Brownestimatesis likely at least about two weeks away.

"Masking decreases transmission," said Brown. "Maybe you're not going to have as many parties or large parties. Maybe put that off a little bit."