When will the Canada-U.S. border reopen?

Travel across the Canada-U.S. bordercould resume by late summer or fall, according to the cautious estimates of some experts, but they say the process will be complicated.

The border has been closed to non-essential travellike tourism and recreationsince March 2020, and the closure agreement between Ottawa and Washingtonis expected to be renewed on May 21.

The agreement makes exceptions, for example, on compassionate grounds like attending a funeral, or to apply for refugee status, and enforcement has been less than absolute.

But the question on most people's minds, saysforeign policy expertAaron Ettinger, is probably "When can I do my day trips over the border once again?

"And my answer to that is, that it's going to be a long, long time."

Ettinger, anassociate professor at Carleton University who specializes in Canadian and U.S. foreign policy, says he believes the borders will remain largely shut for at least a few more months.

"My gut tells me it's going to be [closed] at least well into the fall of 2021," he said, "because things are literally ten times worse now than they were this time last yearwith infection rates, with ICU admissions."

He says onceboth countries sort out the public health concerns,they will have to work through the politics.

"Politically, the United States and Canada would have to get on the same page and that would take an enormous amount of diplomatic cross-border interaction," he said.

Given how complicated their relationship is already, Ettingersays he believes the border situation won't be resolved quickly. He noted that the U.S. has vaccinated a far greater percentage of its residents than Canada.

"The U.S. may not be all that keen on letting Canadian travellers over the border ... But I would imagine that any Canadian government would want the same treatment that Canada affords American travellers."

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One year after the Canada-U.S. land border was closed to non-essential travel, we take a look at the toll it's taken on a young family enduring the separation.

Complex relationship

Melissa Haussman, a political science professor at Carleton University, says both populations would have to achieve a certain threshold of vaccinations, and be satisfied with each other's levels before engaging in discussions.

"I think that's probably a few months off," she said.

Further complicatingmattersis that Canada can't currently make itsown vaccine doses. She said Canada's dependence on the U.S., among others,forvaccine supply adds a layer of economics to the already-complex political relationship.

"I would say my speculative guess is probably [reopening in] late summer, earliest, and I don't even know if that'll happen," she said.

What about quarantine rules?

The rules requiring travellers to quarantine after crossing the border will also likely change, Ettinger says, asmore people are vaccinated and cases decline.

He noted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hinted at a possiblevaccine passport systemlast week.

"Though he didn't commit to anything, it's a signal that he sees a co-ordinated system in the not-so-distant future," Ettinger said.

"The U.S. and Canada could develop a North American vaccine passport to replace and simplify the ramshackle quarantine rules currently in place."

Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said last month it was too soon to talk about reopening the border due to the pandemic's uncertain path in the coming months.

"For the moment, there's no active discussion [about] adjusting those measures," he said at the time.

ThePublic Health Agency of Canadasaid in an email that the federal government is "continually evaluating the impacts of border measures."

"Decisions and considerations about lifting those measures will be based on reliable scientific evidence," said the agency.

What questions are on your mind as vaccination campaigns pick up across Canada? CBC Ottawa is answering one a day this week.

Monday:When can we start travelling overseas again?

Tuesday:When can we stop wearing masks?