What the arrival of the XBB.1.5 Omicron variant means for Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan will likely see a new dominant Omicron subvariantin 2023, according to the province's chief medical officer of health.

Saskatchewan's latest Community Respiratory Illness Surveillance Program (CRISP) report showed that althoughOmicron subvariants BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 made up the majority ofCOVID-19 cases identified in the final two weeks of 2022, a new subvariant had arrived.

Dr. Saqib Shahab, Saskatchewan's chief medical health officer,saidthe two confirmed cases of theXBB.1.5subvariant are likely just the beginning.

"I'm sure there's more XBB.1.5around than what we find," Shahab said in an interview with Radio-Canada this week.

The reason why ishow Saskatchewan and many other provinces now monitor COVID-19.

The province only conducts genome sequencingon PCR tests, which are not available to the general public.

Most Saskatchewan residents, if they are testing, use rapid tests that don't give experts or the province any indication of what variant or subvariant they are infected with

Other experts say they expectcases of XBB.1.5to rise rapidlyin upcoming CRISP reports.

"With a few cases here in Saskatchewan, we are very likely to see those increased exponentially," said Pamela Dawne, a medical anthropologist at the University of Saskatchewan whose research focuses on infectious diseases.

"I think it will probably follow a path similar to the other variants, but perhaps with greater speed because of the infectiousness of this subvariant itself."

Shahab saidhe expects XBB.1.5to become the dominant subvariant in Saskatchewan.

"Over the last three years, every new variant is more transmissible," said Shahab.

An increase in XBB.1.5wouldfollowa pattern that that has already played aroundthe globe.

Health authorities in the United States and the United Kingdom have predicted that XBB.1.5will quickly become the dominant strain of COVID-19 in theirrespective countries.

Thissubvariant is not expected to cause more severe infections. However, it is likely more transmissible than previous subvariants, meaning it will spread faster.

Despite the likelihood it will become the dominant subvariant in Saskatchewan,do not expect a change in the province's approach.

"What we need to do in response to that is not any different from what we've been doing so far," said Shahab.

"Get the bivalent vaccine, you know, choose to wear a mask and an indoor crowded space. If you're visiting someone at higher risk or if you yourself are at high risk wear a mask more consistently."

Dawne saidthe province should be looking at implementing measures rather than taking a wait and see approach.She saidit is never too late to act.

"I'm not a proponent of'let'er rip.' I don't think we should just sit back and let it and let the wave carry us away. I think the public health costs of that are too great," she said.