Coronavirus variant cases set to surge in Saskatoon: U of S scientist

Saskatoon residents should brace themselves for a surge in coronavirusvariant cases in the coming weeks as the highly transmissible strain currently pushing Regina cases into the hundreds migrates to other parts of the province.

"If we just look from a week ago to today, a week ago, there were only two known variant cases in Saskatoon and now there's 20," said Kyle Anderson, an assistant professor of biochemistry, microbiology and immunology at the University of Saskatchewan.

"I would expect that within the next two to four weeks, we're going to see sustained community transmission in more and more cities and towns in Saskatchewan."

Anderson recently posted a YouTube video explaining how the rest of the province lags behind Regina's explosion in virusvariants of concern (VOC) cases, something he said is likely just bad luck and not the result of a superspreader event in the province's capital city.

WATCH | Kyle Anderson models rise of coronavirus variants in Saskatchewan:

U of S professor models rise of coronavirus variants in Saskatchewan

4 years ago

Duration 4:18

Kyle Anderson explains how coronavirus variants are likely to rise in Saskatoon and southern Saskatchewan.

Regina currently has 726 active COVID-19 cases and 640 presumptive variant cases. Saskatoon has 200 active COVID-19 cases with 18 presumptive variant cases.

COVID-19 cases are listed as presumptive if the individual tests positive for the virus locally, but the results have not been confirmed nationally.

Anderson expects the more infectious variant strains of the virus that causes COVID-19to soon outstrip the original strain in Saskatoon, something that has already happened in Regina.

He is also seeing an increase in virus variants in communities in south central and south east Saskatchewan including Yorkton and Moose Jaw.

"We're at a lower case level right now, but we are seeing these doublings.We are seeing these increases at about the same rate as we're seeing in Regina," Anderson said.

"It is just a matter of time before we reach those hundreds of cases that Regina has," Anderson said, referring to Saskatoon.

He also noted that while Saskatoon's case numbers don't look nearly as bad as Regina's they could be a sign of trouble ahead.

According to the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA), variants of concern are up to 70 per cent more transmissible than the originalstrain of the coronavirus.

Chief Medical Health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab said one positive case of the original virus strain could be expected to infect three out of 20 people at a daycare. The B1117strain, which was first detected in the UK, would be expected to infect 10 out of 20 people.

Anderson expects Saskatoon to experience a plateau in COVID-19 cases as the original virus straindeclines and variants increase, with the two strains balancing out.

"That's going to be essentially the signal that we're about to turn the corner to go from a decrease back to an increase," Anderson said.

For its part, City of Saskatoon officials are keeping a close eye on Regina and staying in constant contact with the SHA.

"We're asking all of our critical infrastructure to take a look at their COVID safety planning capacity and ensure that it's up to date and that everybody is reviewing it. We do know that the next few weeks to months are going to be critical for Saskatoon," said Pamela Goulden-McLeod, director of emergency management for the City of Saskatoon.

Goulden-McLeod said that clear messaging to Saskatoon residents about the variants and health measures needed to stop their spread is critical to the city's preparedness plan.

In addition, the SHA has recommended rapid COVID-19 tests be implemented at the work sites of large employers in the city, Goulden-McLeod said. The logistics surrounding that recommendation are being examined.

Representatives for the public and Catholic school divisions in Saskatoon said they are working closely with the SHA and will adapt their COVID-19 plans based on recommendations from the authority.