Sask. political parties nominate candidates for 2024 election, await byelection call

Even though the next provincial election is 15 months away, the Saskatchewan Party and Saskatchewan New Democratic Party (NDP) are busy nominating candidates in preparation.

The two major political parties have been holdingnomination meetings and announcing which MLAs are not seeking re-election.

They are lining up their slate of candidates well before Oct. 28, 2024 the date set for thegeneral election.

"I think there's been a lot of scuttlebutt that there could be an early election given various economic news. That may be premature, but I think the parties are very much looking to 2024," said Charles Smith, who is an assistant professor of political studies withSt. Thomas More College at theUniversity of Saskatchewan.

Smith said the existence of the newly formedSaskatchewan United Party (SUP) and the Buffalo Party, which are both right-of-centre parties, may be motivating the Sask. Party and NDP to move fast.

"There's research that's been done at the federal level suggesting that getting candidates in place early really matters," said Daniel Westlake, who is an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan.

"It strikes me that it makes sense that parties would want candidates in place a year out, so they can get their campaigns in place. They can get local organizations in place."

Westlake and Smith spoke about Saskatchewan's political landscape withCBC Radio'sSaskatoon Morninghost Leisha Grebinskion Tuesday.

Smith was asked about SUPand its leaderNadine Wilson, who is the MLA for Saskatchewan Riversand a former Sask. Party politician.He said it's too early to tell how strong the support for SUP is.

"I think there's certainly a presence on the farther right that the Sask. Party certainly should be looking at it. I think you look at Scott Moe's comments on election night [in 2020.] It was very much centred on the rise of the Buffalo Party in rural areas and he didn't really even mention the NDP in his remarks," he said.

"I think that was indicative of a government on the right that's probably looking over its right shoulder more than it is looking at the fact that the NDP roughly got 32 to 35 per cent of the vote."

Smith said the NDP has become an "urban party." He expects theSask. Party to be challenged by the newer, right-of-centreparties in the rural areas.

Westlake said the Sask. Party has math in its favour when fending off a challenge from the right.

"They're already winning a lot of these ridings with 60 to 70 per cent of the vote, so they can afford to lose fiveto 10 per cent to something like the Sask. United Party and still win the riding quite comfortably."

Saskatoon Morning11:58Provincial political parties have been busy nominating candidates despite the next election being a year away

Leisha talks with our political panel made up of Charles Smith, associate professor of political studies at St. Thomas More College at the University of Saskatchewan and Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the U of S, about why political parties are already nominating candidates for the next election.

As for the NDP, Smith said itsleader Carla Beck is still a relative unknown to voters. She was chosen to lead the party in 2022.

"I think part of the reason the party is organizing as quickly as they can is that they need to get their message out and introduce their leader. We are talking about the third or fourth leader, I think, since they last formed government."

Westlake said some demographic and economic factors in the province don't work in theNDP's favour.

"We're seeing across the country that rural areas tend to go more conservative, urban areas tend to go more progressive. Saskatchewan is one of the more rural provinces in the country," he said.

"On top of that, resource politics and resource development tend to favour more conservative partiesand Saskatchewan is the second most reliant on resources [behind Alberta]so those dynamics are hard to break."

Byelection call likely days away

Although the general election is still months away, some people will be heading to the polls sooner.

Residents in three constituencies are awaitingbyelections.

Three Saskatchewan ridings do not currently have MLAs representing them:Regina Coronation Park, Regina Walsh Acresand Lumsden-Morse.The SaskatchewanPartypreviously held all three seats.

Two weeks ago,Beck held a news conference andcalled for the byelectiondateto be set.

By legislation, the Regina Coronation Park byelection must be done by August 10. Moe previously committed to holding the votes simultaneously for the three open seats.

A summer byelection is extremely rare in Saskatchewan and Smith said Beck's request for a call may be a sign of confidence.

"I think in the short term they're liking the dynamics of what's happening in Regina, the polling numbers suggest that Regina has moved away from the Sask. Party. If the polling numbers are accurate, that gives the NDP a bit of wind in their sails."

However, Westlake said the byelection resultsmay not have an impact on the outcome of the 2024 general election.

"The reality of byelections is that turnout tends to be lower. They are ridings that are not necessarily representative of the province," he said.

"Having those extra MLAs is valuable in the short-term to the parties but I wouldn't be trying to predict a future election based on byelection results."