University of Regina wastewater study shows COVID-19 levels remain volatile

The latest COVID-19 study from the University of Regina says viral levels in the city's wastewater have risen again.

According to molecular biologist Tzu-Chiao Chao, levels taken during the latest study period have shown a slight uptick from the previous week.

Chao said that while there has been a net decline in viral load over the last several weeks, COVID levels remain volatile and researchers haven't been able to predict a sustained trend.

He said the high number of infection in the city could lead to another spike.

"We are still at a very high level," he said.

"If the transmission rate increases again and it spreads to more people in the city, then we are likely to see potentially sharp increases in the foreseeable future."

Researchers test samples taken from the city's wastewater treatment plant several times a week and look for evidence of COVID-19. The test results are used as an indicator of whether COVID-19 infections in the city are risingor declining.

Chao said that people's actions will likely determine whether or not COVID-19 levels rise or fall.

"It depends a lot on the behaviour of people other than anything else at this point," he said.

"Whether people are gathering in larger groups or wearing masks under certain situations."

He said it's very clear there is still a high infection rate in the city.

"The lowest numbers are still higher or above the highest we've seen in Delta," he said.

"Basically, we are above the peak of the last wave."

Saskatoon study

Meanwhile, at the University of Saskatchewan, researchers are hoping that numbers are trending down.

Toxicologist John Giesy said his study shows Saskatoon's wastewater numbers are about equal to numbers from eight weeks ago, during the beginning of the Omicron variant wave.

However, COVID levels in North Battleford continue to be very high, and his team is keeping a close eye on those numbers.

"We've passed the peak in Saskatoon, for sure," he said.

"For the Battlefords, we're probably near the peak and it looks like it'll be coming down."

He believes the Battlefords and Prince Albert are both lagging behind Saskatoon's COVID-19 numbers by about two weeks. As a result, he believes the Battlefords numbers are expected to drop soon.

Giesy said his team has discovered evidence of the BA-2 substrain of the Omicron variant. He believes the more-infectioussubstrain makes up 20 per cent of the virus found in Saskatoon and 40 per cent of the virus located in North Battleford.

While some epidemiologists were concerned that BA-2 could ultimately drive a new wave of COVID-19 infections, Giesy doesn't believe that is happening here.

Ultimately, the toxicologist believes the current wave is acting as researchers predicted peaking up quickly and coming down rapidly.

He said there's nothing on the horizon that would indicate another wave is coming.

"There's nothing happening like people going back to school or mandates being dropped," said Giesy.

"My prediction is next week we should be even lower than we are this week."

He expects hospitalization rates will remain high for the next two to three weeks due to the high rate of infection.