Hospital overcrowding inevitable in Ontario, expert says

The average elementary school student can understand theproblems leading to overcrowding in Ontario's hospitals, but few in the health care system do, says Dr. Michael Rachlis, a health policy analyst.

For months, Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre has been operating beyond its capacity.Patients are crowded into hallways and common areas.Elective surgeries have been cancelled.

The departing president of the hospital, Andre Robichaud, said on Wednesday the overcrowding is not her fault. Rachlis agrees. He said health care funding is tied to running as close to capacity as possible.

"Even if everything is being done perfectly, hospital executives are required to run at 95 per cent capacity," Rachlis said. "You don't need anything more than Grade 3 math to understand if you're running at 95 per capacity and then flu season comes along, you're going to get a surge and you're guaranteed to get gridlock."

• Record number of patients at Thunder Bay hospital
• Thunder Bay hospital returns to chronic gridlock

The other problem facing hospitals in Ontario is the number of people who leave and then return to hospital within days.

"What would happen if Ford had to take back 15 to 20 per cent of its vehicles?" Rachlis asked. "That's what hospitals are dealing with, a 15 to 20 per cent readmission rate."

Better discharge planning could help alleviate that burden, he said, but the "fragmentation" of Ontario's health care system among hospitals,Local Health Integration Networks and Community Care Access Centres would still lead to problems.

Rachlissaid he admires Manitoba's model of regional health authorities which overseehospital, home care and long-term care services.