What chance do the Toronto Blue Jays have of making the playoffs?

What chance dothe Toronto Blue Jays have of makingthe playoffs?

As the boys of summer stare down their final stretch of regular-season games, that seems to be the question of the hour in Toronto and a 21-year-old might have the answer: a74 per cent shot.

Those are the odds of the Jays making it to at least the Wild Card game, according to Matt Gwin, a university student who co-runs the Toronto wing of Baseball Prospectus.

• INTERACTIVE: Explore the Toronto Blue Jayschances and how their rivals are faring

"I think they'll take the top spot in the Wild Card," Gwin told CBC News."They have more talent than all the others, like the Orioles, the Tigers, the Mariners and the Astros. They've just run into some poor luck recently."

Poor luck or a team falling apart depending on who you ask. Since the beginning of the month, the Jays have lost 12of their 19games. But unlike a lot of baseball fans, a "tumultuous" stretch doesn't worry Gwin.

"I've become very desensitizedto losses and stuff like that," said Gwin. "Once you do look at the overall picture, you can kind of see that it's not quite as bad as it may look in a single week."

So, how do you crunch the odds?

Let's take a look at howGwin and the folks atBaseball Prospectus determine the Jays' playoff chances through analytics. Keep in mind, this is one system of projection. There are othersand none of them are fool-proof.

It ispretty complicated, so here's a simplified list of everything that goes into determiningthe odds:

• Projection of the team's talent level at the time
• The team's place in the standings
• The teams the Jays still haveto play through the end of the season
• The number of gamesleft in the season

Most of those factors are fairly self-explanatory, but a team's talent-level projection is a little trickier.

The number crunchers look atanindividual player's offensive and defensivestatistics andcomparethem to stats from pastplayers at the same position. By comparing current players with past players who have a similar profile, they can project a player's performance along a similar trajectory, Gwin said.They thenlook athow much playing time they'relikely to get in the season to contribute to their team's overall talent.

But while that work is very important to playoff odds early in the season, Gwin said that matters a lot less with just over a weekleft in the regular season. Over a smaller sample (ie. fewer teams), according to Gwin, talent matters less and position in the standings matters more. A several-game lead in the standings could make all the difference.

"I think their position in the standings currently is more important than anything else," said Gwin. "Anything can really happen. That's kind of the baseball theory."

As of Friday morning, the Jays were five and a half gamesbehind Boston in the AmericanLeague East with only 10games left in the season. They hada 74.3per cent chance ofmaking it tothe Wild Card game, according to Gwin.

• INTERACTIVE: Explore the Toronto Blue Jayschances and how their rivals are faring

Do the Jays still have a shot at the pennant?

Gwin's prediction is that the Jays take the first Wild Card spot, but does Toronto still have a shot at winning the American League East?

Technically.

"There's a numerical chance that they could win the division, but not a good one," said Gwin. "Essentially they don't control their own destiny and Boston does."

Boston has a 98per cent chance of winning the AL East. Meanwhile, the Jays are down to 1.5 per cent odds.

September baseball has not been kind to the Jays. Amonth ago, the teamhad about a 40 to 50 per cent chance of winning the division.

"Lady luck has not allowed [the Jays] to beat the Red Sox this year," said Gwin. But he said "they're quite comparable" in terms of talent.

"That's kind of my dream playoff series.I think it would be really interesting."

The American League Wild Card Race

First though, Toronto has to get the Wild Card and win.

If the season ended today, the Jays would take the top Wild Card spot in the American League but it's a tight race.

The Baltimore Orioles are just a game back of Toronto and holdthe second Wild Card, whilethe Detroit Tigers andHouston Astrosare within a game of a spot. TheSeattle Mariners are within two games of a spot, while the New YorkYankees are within 2.5 games.

You can follow the Jays' and their rivals' chances at clinching a spot in the Wild Card gameby checking in on this interactive.