Strengths, weaknesses of each candidate make PC leadership race intriguing

Caroline Mulroney, Christine Elliott and Doug Ford will be under the microscope over the next four weeks as they try to win over the Ontario PC membership.

For Progressive Conservatives, the question is clear:who is the best candidate to take on Premier Kathleen Wynne and NDP leader Andrea Horwathand lead the party through the spring election campaign?

A case can be made for each of the three, while rivals can point to flaws in each of them as well.

Doug Ford

Ford clearly has a strong and loyal grassroots following. He persuaded hundreds of people to attend a rally on a cold and snowy Saturday night in Toronto to kick off his leadership campaign.

"The people who like Doug Ford and like what he says do not care about the problems, do not care about the occasional bozo eruption," says political analystKarlBlanger, a former national director of theNDPand current president of the Douglas-Caldwell Foundation. "They see him as one of them and speaking for them and standing up for them. And that's very important in politics."

Ford's pitch that he is an outsider, not part of the Tory establishment, could resonate with many of the new members who joined the PCs under Brown's tenure.

• Ford launches PC leadership campaign with rally

That outsider status could also be his biggest weakness. Ford does not have a surplus of allies in the corridors of power in the PC party. He may dismiss that as unnecessary, even be proud of it, but to win a leadership race, friends in high places don't usually hurt.

Ford will also need to be careful and disciplined in his public comments to avoid making people think it's too risky to have him leading the party.

Christine Elliott

The second person to officially declare a candidacy, Elliott has more political experience than either of her rivals, including time spent as the deputy leader of the PC party.

• Elliott jumps back into politics, running for PC leadership

"I do have nine years of experience as anMPP," Elliott said in an interview with CBC's Wendy Mesley. "I've also done a lot of work as a volunteer in my community, I truly believe I'm the one who can lead the party and beat Kathleen Wynne."

Christine Elliott on leadership bid, PC rot and fake party memberships

7 years ago

Duration 7:06

Ontario Progressive Conservative candidate Christine Elliott speaks to the CBCs Wendy Mesley about her bid for the leadership, Vic Fedelis crusade to root out the rot, possible fake party memberships, and sexual misconduct within the party

But Elliott's track record can also be seen as a disadvantage. Her critics will suggest she isbringing nothing new or fresh to a party that's been out of power for 14 years. She failed to win the 2009 PC leadership contest, losing to Tim Hudak, and left politics after losing the 2015 race to Patrick Brown.

"Christine Elliott, sure she has experience," said Toronto deputy mayor and PC candidate DenzilMinnan-Wong, a Mulroney backer. "She has the experience of losing twice in leadership campaigns."

Caroline Mulroney

"I care deeply about this," declared Mulroney in an interview withCBCNews on Monday. "I knowI can lead the party tovictory on June7th."

That would be a huge accomplishment for someone who until now has never run for office. (Mulroney became the PC candidate in the riding ofYork-Simcoeby acclamation.) She has a skilled backroom team that is ready to roll, having inherited much of former leader Patrick Brown's campaign machinery. So far, Mulroney has more endorsements from PC caucus members than either of her rivals.

CBC speaks with Ontario PC leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney

7 years ago

Duration 8:43

Caroline Mulroney tells us why she's the best candidate to lead the Ontario PC Party

Mulroney also has "instant name recognition," said Blanger.He said the positives that name provides in the way of mediaexposure and connections in the party outweigh any negative baggage that might be associated with her father's time as prime minister.

Trained as a lawyer with a career in finance, Mulroney has an impressive business rsum. But she has no political experience. And politics - especially the bare-knuckle politics of a leadership race and an election campaign - is a whole new ball game.

• Mulroney says she offers "different kind of experience"

"We don't know if she's going to hold her own in the political scene," said Blanger. "That said, everything that I hear about her is that she's very good and there's a lot of people who believe in her."

The flip side of Mulroney's business background is that her work experience on Wall Street and Bay Street, coupled with the fact her four children are in private school, could give her opponents ammunition to label her as privileged. A key factor will be whether ordinary people feel she comes across as authentic.