WHO plans for 100-300 Ebola in Congo cases over 3 months

The World Health Organizationassumes 100-300 cases of Ebola in Congobetween May and July, under a revised response plan to theoutbreak that it published on Tuesday.

An earlier version of the plan, based on information to May15, had assumed 80-100 cases. The WHO says the new figure is not a prediction but part ofits modelling to plan and budget for a response.

Congo's Health Ministry said late on Monday there had been54 cases of Ebola in the outbreak 35 confirmed, 13 probableand six suspected and 25 deaths. There have been no deaths ornew confirmed cases in the past two days.

The deadly virus spreads easily through bodily fluids andeight previous outbreaks in Congo have claimed between 1 and 256lives. A West African outbreak that began in late 2013 killed11,300 before being brought under control in 2016.

WHO's plan for Congo assumes each rural Ebola case wouldhave 10 potentially infected contacts and each urban case wouldhave 30. As of May 26, there were 906 contacts being followed,WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said.

No explosive increase in cases

Identifying contacts is crucial for stopping the spread ofthe disease. Health workers hope to vaccinate every contact toeffectively ringfence each Ebola patient and prevent furtherspread.

WHO is cautiously optimistic about the progress of the Ebola responsein Congo after 90 per cent of people atrisk in the city of Mbandaka were vaccinated, a senior WHOofficial said on Tuesday.

"I think we can't conclude that we have safeguarded the city of Mbandaka but we can say that so far there has not been an explosive increase in cases, so that's a positive sign and a positive development," Peter Salama, WHO Deputy Director-General for EmergencyPreparedness and Response, told reporters.

More than 400 potential Ebolacontacts had been vaccinated.

Salamaalso said he hoped to get government approval within daysto use five experimental drugs to treat Ebola patients, in aclinical trial which could lay the groundwork for more rapidtreatments in future outbreaks.

The WHO estimates 1,000 people move each day through majorpoints of entry connected to Bikoro health zone, the remote areaof Equateur province where the outbreak was first declared.Around 50 per day go by boat from Bikoro to neighbouringRepublic of Congo.

Since the plan was written, the disease has spread to theprovincial capital Mbandaka, with an estimated population of 1.5million people, and WHO has more than doubled its responsebudget, to $56 million US from an initial $26 million.

The plan also sets out targets for the disease response,including that 100 per cent of new cases should come from knowncontacts and none of the cases should be health care workers.

Zero contacts should be lost, and all people who die fromsuspected or probable Ebola should be buried in a safe way, toprevent the infection spreading.

The case fatality ratio for all confirmed cases admittedinto Ebola treatment centres should be less than 50 per cent, itsaid.