Canada's criticism of Russia will 'make no difference'

The Conservative government's toughrhetoricover Russias actions inUkraine may play well to some voters domestically, but analystsdoubt it will have anyimpact on curtailing Moscow's policies in the region.

"I think the only people Putins going to pay any attention to, if he pays any attention at all, are going to be the United Statesand the European Union, above all Germany," said Randall Hansen, director of the University of Toronto's Centre for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies.

"The United States, because its the global super power, and Germany because its a major importer of Russian gas, which on the one handgives Putin leverage, and on the other hand,he'salso dependent on Germany.

"Canada doesnt matter in this in the slightest. We can rant and yell and threaten. It will make no difference.

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Earlier this week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper ramped up the tough talk against Moscow,blamingthe recent occupation ofgovernment buildings in 10 cities in eastern Ukraine on"Russian provocateurs sent by the Putin regime."

"When a major power acts in a way that is so clearly aggressive, militaristic, and imperialistic, this represents a significant threat to the peace and stability of the world, and it's time we all recognized the depth and the seriousness of that threat," Harper said.

The prime minister added that, "we also know from history that anybody who makes it their historical mission to turn the clock back, as Mr. Putin has determined to do, that those kinds of missions always fail in the end. But we will do all in our power to make it fail."

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird has also spoken out stronglyagainst Russia. In the early stages of the crisis, Baird comparedRussia's troop presence in Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula to Hitler's 1938 invasion of Sudetenland, a part of the former Czechoslovakia.Canada has subsequently imposedeconomic sanctions and travel bans againstRussian officials.

Not much leverage

But while Canadacan talk tough, it doesn't have any particular leverage overRussia, Hansen said.

"We're too small. We don't ship them any resources, indeed we're competitors for the sale of resources globally," he said.

JeffSahadeo, director of Carleton University'sInstitute of European,Russian and EurasianStudies, agreed that the condemnations from Canada will not influenceRussian policy.

"I don't think it does anything for the Russians.If anything it confirms their narrative that no matter what they do they'redemonized by Western countries for acts that are similar to the ones that other countries undertake."

PiotrDutkiewicz, a political science professor atCarletonand the former director of theInstitute of European,Russian andEurasianStudies, said it's relatively easy for the government to criticize because Canada doesn't have extensive economic relations with Russia and there are nolarge Russian investments in Canada.

However, he notes that Canadian companies dohave $3-billion worth of investment in Russia and the government should takethatintoconsideration when speaking out.

"I think we should take a more balanced, Im not saying uncritical, Im saying more balanced position, taking into the equation Canadian interests in Russia," Dutkiewiczsaid.

"If the Canadian government decides to be critical it should be critical, but at the same time we should watchwhat others are doing and how, by ourcriticisms,were really helping Ukraine."

'Heated'rhetoric

Dutkiewiczsaid that Canada is losing its reputation as anegotiatorand instead is engaging in rhetoric stronger than that of the U.S., Germany or France.

With theirvery heatedrhetoricand no action were becoming a paper tiger in this process," he said. "I really dont like Canada to beseenas apapertiger who is roaring withouthavingany tools toimplementitsoutrage."

But the experts agreed that the government's words have little to do withforeign policy.

"Harper and Baird, I think, are bothprincipled democrats and have a principled commitment to liberal democracies such as Israeland aprincipled oppositiontoautocraticgovernments," Hansen said. "But this is really about domesticpolitics.Sothey're makinga play to theUkrainiancommunity in Canada."