Trial start date, length difficult to predict in China spying case against 2 Canadians

The Liberal government isfacing renewed pressure torelease Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou andend her extradition process, a move that some believe would trigger the releaseofCanadiansMichael Spavor and Michael Kovrigwho are languishing in a Chinese prison.

The Trudeau government and other political observers haveaccused China of detaining Kovrig and Spavor in retaliation for the arrest of Meng.

But Beijing has dismissedthose links, and instead, has accused the two Canadians of spying. Last week, after 18 months of detention, they were formally charged.

While it's difficult to predict when their trial will begin, experts say a guilty verdict is a foregone conclusion.

Why did it take 18 months to charge Kovrig and Spavor?

It's notuncommonfor Chinese officials to drag out the process offormally chargingthose detained in relationto a national security casesaid Sida Liu, a University of Toronto sociology professor who is an expert on China's legal system.

When it comes to national security cases, he said, there are a number ofexceptions in Chinese procedural law that allow police and security agents to extendthe detention.

Still, according to NicholasHowson, a University of Michigan law professorand expert in Chinese law,the government is expected to conform to certain substantive and procedural norms, which includeslength of detention of those arrested.

But in this case, Howson said via email, it seems clearthe government has not conformed to many of those norms.

That the two Canadianswere kept in "extraordinarilylong detention" clearlyhas to do with political considerations, said Jacques deLisle, a University of Pennsylvania law professor who specializes in China's criminal law system.

And certainly, said deLisle, the timing of the chargesbeing laid this monthappear to have a lot to do with the Meng case. Last month, a B.C judge ruled thatthe next legal stepin the extradition processof Mengcouldproceed.

What are they charged with?

While Kovrig and Spavor are often grouped together they have been charged separately and in separate jurisdictions.Kovrig was charged inBeijing on suspicion of spying for state secrets and intelligence. Spavor was charged in Dandong, a city near the North Korean border, on suspicion of spying for a foreign entity and illegally providing state secrets.

But both are accused of violating Article 111of the Criminal Law of the People's Republic of China. That article pertains to anyone who"steals, spies into, buys or unlawfully supplies State secrets or intelligence for an organ, organization or individual outside the territory of China."

What sentence do they face?

It can range from 10 years to life imprisonment.

How soon willtheir trialbegin andhow long will itlast?

It's difficult to say.

"Having had them in detention for so long, and knowing how highprofile this case is, Iwould be surprised if [the prosecutors] didn't have their ducks in a row to take this forward on a moment's notice if they felt inclined to do so," saiddeLisle. "Whether they will do so is a political calculation."

In theory, once the case is receivedby the courts meaning, once the charges are laid the clock starts ticking, saidLiu.

As noted by the government of Canada's travel advisory website, the court has two to six months, from the date a case is transferred to the court, to holdhearings and issue an initial judgment.

But that process can be longer with the approval of the Chinese Supreme People's Court, the website says.

As deLisle noted, it's not a system where violations of procedural rules are going to get the charges dropped.

However, if "somebody has been detained for a long period, there's no reason [the legal process]can't move quickly," deLsile said. "It's not a systemwhere the courts are profoundly backed up."

Of course, the political nature of the case, and its alleged link to the Meng extradition proceedings, make it difficult to predict the length of the trial, Liu said.

Still, he says he doesn't believe Chinese prosecutors will necessarily co-ordinate the timing of their casewith the Mengextradition proceedings, which could drag on for a couple years.

"I don't think they will just indefinitely wait for the Meng case to come to a decision," Liu said.

Can they expect a fair trial?

Already, the two Canadians are facing a court system where the conviction rate in criminal trials is around 99 per cent, Liu said.

And, according to Howson, there is no indication that thelegal process will deviate from a clearly pre-ordained conclusion;meaning, in all likelihood, the Chinese legal institutions will do the direct bidding of the ruling Communist Party of China.

"Many high-profile criminal cases (less so in the civil sphere) in contemporary China are subject to the same kind of blunt intervention by Chinese political institutions. That is only more likely in this case," he wrote.

WATCH |China charges Canadians with espionage:

China elevates case against two Canadians with charges of espionage

4 years ago

Duration 3:08

Laying formal charges is a significant step, but there isn't any clarity over when the cases might proceed in court, says freelance reporter Richard Kimber.

Meanwhile, Chinese courts are at their least autonomous, least free from politicalinfluence,when it is a high-profile political case,deLislesaid.

"I would not be counting on an acquittal."

Liu said they wouldn't have been charged in the first place if there was a chance they could be acquitted.

"It's almost almost certain, I think, they will be found guilty."