Disputes among G7 nations may prevent consensus on a path to peace in Gaza: experts

When U.S. President Joe Biden announced a new proposal for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza last week, it took only a fewdays for the G7 to endorse the plan in a joint statement.

But experts say other disagreements among G7 member countries over the past nine months maymeanthe world's leading economies fail to reach a consensus on a long-term path to peace when they meet in Italy next week.

The G7 nations Canada, the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Italyand the United Kingdom, with the European Union also taking part issued a statement Monday saying they "fully endorse and will stand behind the comprehensive peace deal outlined by President Biden that would lead to an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all hostages, a significant and sustained increase in humanitarian assistance for distribution throughout Gaza, and an enduring end to the crisis."

The statement also repeated the G7'scommitment to an eventual two-state solution and called on Hamas to accept the deal.

That ceasefire proposalwould see Israeli forces withdrawfrom populated areas of Gaza, releasehundreds of Palestinians from captivity, allow Palestinian familiesto return to their homes and ramp up food aid delivery to600trucks per day.

The ceasefire would last six weeks and would also require Hamas torelease all Israeli hostages.

The G7 is less than completely unified onother matters concerning the conflict.

On May 20, the International Criminal Court's top prosecutorKarim Khanannounced he was seeking warrants for the leaders of Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

WATCH: ICC prosecutor says no one is 'above the law'

ICC prosecutor says no one 'above the law' after seeking warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders

5 months ago

Duration 3:21

In an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour, International Criminal Court (ICC) chief prosecutor Karim Khan discusses the decision to apply for warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in connection with the Oct. 7 attacks and the ongoing war in Gaza.

Biden's reaction was immediate. In a media statement, the White House called attempts to prosecuteIsrael's leaders "outrageous" and said "there is no equivalence none between Israel and Hamas."

France, meanwhile, declared it "supports the International Criminal Court, its independence and the fight against impunity in all situations," while French Foreign Affairs Minister Stphane Sjourn said the simultaneous warrant requests should not suggest an "equivalency" between Israel and Hamas.

Canada has said it supports the ICC's work. When asked if the government would arrest Netanyahuunder an ICC warrantif he visited Canada, however, Foreign Affairs Minister Mlanie Jolysaidthe scenariowas"hypothetical" and refused to answer.

John Kirton, the director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto, said it's unlikely that G7leaders willcome to a consensus on thedetails of a post-war future at theirJune 13-15 summit.

"I think they know they can't," he said. "I think what they'll want to spend their scarce time in Apulia on is how can you convince Hamas to drop its ... reservations [on Biden's proposal]."

Domestic, European divisions also at play

Kirton also said domestic political considerationswill be a factorfor some leaders at the G7 such asBiden, who is seeking reelection against Donald Trump later this year, andPrime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is looking to hold on to the Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's in a byelection on June 24.

"All of the [G7] leaders are quite unpopular domestically," hesaid. "We Canadians, I guess in downtown Toronto, think of the need for the Liberal Party to get the full support of all citizens of the Jewish faith group living in the riding of Saint Paul's."

Max Bergmann, director forEurope, Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told journalists in a June 3 briefinghe doesn't expect the Middle East conflict to feature prominently on the summit's agenda.

"The Europeans themselves do not have a united position on their approach to the conflict," Bergmann said.

"There are countries like Germany, for instance, that very much has been a long supporter of Israel. And then there are other countries like Spain that have recognized aPalestinian state."

Spain does not have its own membership in the G7 but would be represented at the summit through the EU. SpanishPrime Minister Pedro Sanchez has warned that Israel is headed toward international isolation.

One expert, however, pointed to theharsher tone Biden used regardingNetanyahuin a recent Time Magazine interviewconducted before theceasefire proposal but published days after its announcement.

"There could very well be, ironically, a greater unanimity among the G7 on what needs to happen now," said Errol Mendes, professor of international law at the University of Ottawa. "The next few days ... are going to be crucial for that to either solidify or not."

When Biden was asked during that interview if he thought Netanyahu was prolonging the war in Gaza for his own political reasons, hesaid "there is every reason for people to draw that conclusion."

The G7's official website notes "a key focus" of the upcoming summit"will be the defence of the rules-based international system. Russia's war of aggression on Ukraine has undermined its principles and triggered growing instability, with multiple crises unfolding worldwide. The G7 will give equal importance to the conflict in the Middle East, with its consequences for the global agenda."

Speaking on background to journalists on Friday, a Canadian government official said Prime Minister Trudeau will participate in a working session on the Middle East during the G7 summit.

The official would not say what Canada hopes the meeting will achieve. "I'm not going to speculate about what the leaders will agree on while in Italy," he said.

On Thursday, Jolyposted on the social media platformX that she had spoken withher Jordanian and Saudi counterparts about Gaza, the "urgent need for a ceasefire" andhumanitarian assistance, and the need for the release of Israeli hostages.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a whirlwind trip to the Middle East with stops in Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Qatar in the days leading up to the G7 summit. He's expected to discuss the ceasefire proposal.