Independence movements in Scotland, Quebec heading in different directions

As Scots contemplate becoming an independent country again just seven years after deciding against it in a 2014 referendum Quebec seems further away from independence than it has been for decades.

Due to complications related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the complete results of the election held in Scotland on Thursday were only announced on Saturday. The governingScottish National Party (SNP) fell one seat shy of a majority in the Scottish Parliament but thanks to eight seats won by the pro-independenceScottish Greens,Scotland could be on track for a second independence referendum.

Whetherone is held will depend on a number of factors including British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Quebec was able to hold its own referendumson independence twicewithout seeking approval from Ottawa.Scotland, on the other hand, needs Westminster's permission to hold a legal vote.

But appetite for Scottish independence is running higher than it was back in 2014 and it's notinconceivablethat the United Kingdom might soon find itself disunited.

Canada, by comparison, looks like a paragon of stability.

For roughly half a century from the start of the Quiet Revolution to the first election of a Parti Qubcois government in 1976 and throughtwo sovereignty referendums in 1980 and 1995 the future of the federation looked shaky. These days, however, grievances in parts of Western Canada arguablymight pose a bigger threat to national unity than Quebec's sovereignty movement.

Long decline in support for sovereignty

The paucity of polls on Quebec sovereignty is just one signof the lack of currentinterest in la question nationale.

In the 1990s and 2000s, polls on Quebec independence were published on a monthly basis sometimes even multiple times per month. Now, polls on independence appear once or twice a yearat most.

Only three polls on sovereignty have been published since 2018. The most recent camefromMainstreet Researchit found just 32 per cent support for independence, or 36 per cent among decided voters in Quebec.

Another survey by Lger published in December found similar results: 27 per cent in favour of sovereignty, or about 34 per cent among decided voters.

Among decided francophone voters (about 60 per cent of them voted 'oui'in 1995),support for sovereignty in theLger pollwasroughly44 to 45 per cent.

More Scots saying 'aye,'moreQuebecers saying'non'

While the trend line is drifting away from sovereignty in Quebec, it hasmovedtowardindependence in Scotland over the past year.

Polls put support for independence in Scotland at around 45 per cent, just a few points behind support for staying in the United Kingdom (the rest are undecided).

While that is a shift from the summer and fall of 2020 when Yes support crested to about 50 per cent, nearly 10 percentage points ahead of No support for independence nevertheless remains at a historic high and iswell ahead of where it was before the 2014 referendum (which theNo sidewon by a margin of 55 to 45 per cent).

The boost in support for independence can be attributed largelyto two factors: Brexit, which 62 per cent of Scots voted against in the 2016 referendum, and the election of a majority Conservative government under Johnson in 2019 (and Britain's subsequent "hard" exit from the European Union).

In short, the political situation has changed the landscape in Scotland enough to make a pro-independence vote in another referendum more likely.

Quebec has been going in the opposite direction.

The PQ drifting into irrelevance

There has been a long trend in Quebec politics away from the old sovereignist vs. federalist divide as support for sovereignty has waned. It hasn't hit 40 per cent in polls since 2015 and you have to go back to 2005, during the sponsorship scandal, to find polls with more than 50 per cent support for Quebec independence.

The Parti Qubcois, the standard bearer for sovereignty in Quebec, has been struggling as a result.

A poll by Lger for Le Journal de Montral on Friday showed the PQ with just 12 per cent support, putting it in fourth place behind Premier Franois Legault's Coalition Avenir Qubec, the opposition Liberals and Qubec Solidaire, a small left-wing sovereignist competitor.

The PQ's share of the vote has slid in three consecutive elections since 2008 and it hasn't done better than 35 per cent of the vote since 1998. In the 2018 election, the PQ put up the worst result in its history.

The Lger poll suggests the PQ could set a new record low when Quebec holds its next scheduled election in October 2022.

Legault's CAQ has changed the game

The PQ's support has been gutted by both the lack of enthusiasm for old constitutional debates and the rise of the CAQ, which has emerged as the main vehicle for French-speaking nationalists in Quebec.

According to Lger, the CAQ has 46 per cent support and enjoys a 26-point lead over the Quebec Liberals. This would be enough to hand the CAQ a massive majority government if an election were held today perhaps the biggest majorityQuebec has seen in over 30 years.

Despite the fact thathis party doesn't supportindependence, Legault has successfully corralled the votes of sovereignists. The poll conducted by Lger in December found that about half of Quebecers who support sovereignty would cast their ballot for the CAQ.Just about a third of sovereignists prefer the PQ.

The push for independence is no longer a priority for Quebec nationalists, who seem quite content with a CAQ government that pushes for more autonomy for Quebec within the federation.

Legault has so far proven wrong one of the arguments sovereignists used against him that by abandoning the threat of a referendum, the CAQ would lose a lotof Quebec's leverage with the federal government.

Instead, Legault has emerged as an important figurearound the first ministers'table and isn't the pariah among federalist party leaders that past PQ premiers could be. Federal leaders like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole andBloc Qubcois LeaderYves-Franois Blanchet havecourtedLegault forelectoral gain.

Legault and the CAQwon't maintain their current popularity levelsforever, of course. It's difficult to predict what a post-Legault political landscape will look like in Quebec.

But with the political environment looking better for Scottish nationalists and worse for Quebec sovereignists, itseems thatthe nextblue-and-white flagto flutter outsideUnited Nations headquarters may be the Saltire,not the Fleurdelis.