'Best response is an unqualified apology': How politicians survive political scandals

Time will tell whether the blackface images that surfaced this week will affectJustin Trudeau at the polls, but it certainly hasn't marked the immediate demise of his political career. He continues to carry on as leader of the Liberal party.

And that's not particularly surprising forAndray Domise, a Toronto-based freelance writer andco-host of the cultural podcast Black Tea.

"My point of view on it when the story brokein the first place is that it's probablynot going to move the needle very much," he said.

"There's goingto be contrition, apologies, which has happened.There's going to be acceptance of the apologies from party members, also peoplein the publicas well. And eventually this blows over."

The controversy, however, highlights, how certain factors, including the politician themselves, determine whether a politician can survive a political scandal.

"Political scandals come in allsorts of shapes andsizes with varying degrees of severity and risk," said Charles Bird, aprincipal at the Earnscliffe Strategy Groupand a Liberal strategist."But the test is always how effectively you can manage and contain them."

"What makes this especially hard is that most scandals come with a high degree of personal embarrassment ... andthat clouds judgment on the part of the alleged perpetrator," Birdsaid.

That's why it's important to haveexperienced and trusted advisers who can offer "clear-eyed dispassionate advice about how much trouble you're really in and the best way to respond," he said.

"Because without that you're going to dig yourself in an even deeper hole."

Apologizing is key

The apology, then,is often key to survival, Bird said.The qualified apologysuch asapologizing for anyone who may have been offendedcomes across as half-hearted.

"The best response is an unqualified apology, where you're honest about the mistake you've made.You make clear that you've thought it through and understand the implications of your actions and demonstrate genuine remorse.

Bird cited the examples of two U.S. governors who were also revealed to have donned blackface in the pastand unequivocally apologized for their actions.

But that's not always the best course of action, saysAdam J. Newmark, a political science professor at Appalachian State University.

Newmarkco-authored a study in Social Science Quarterly, a peer-reviewed journal,titledSurviving Political Scandals: Why Some Transgressions End Political Careers and Others Do Not.

"There may be situations we don't bother with the apology because you don't see this asgaining any traction," he said.

The paper notes that"aggressivelydefending or apologizing signals thatthe scandal is portentousand that there is some culpability on thepart of the politician."

Timing is everything

The timing of the scandal mayalso play a role on whether a politician's career is over.

"Nobody ever very rarely leaves on their own. They're mostly forced out and they're forced out because there's a better option available, said Conservative strategist Jason Lietaer.

If theLiberals believed that they had a better optionand a better chance of winning with another leader, they would have forcedTrudeau out, he said.

"If thiswould have been a year ago, a year before an election campaign and you weren't, three weeks away with so many so much uncertainty with changing gears, who knows what would have happened," Lietaer said.

Newmark found that the closer to election day that a scandal breaks, the more likely the politician will survive.

"Early breaking scandals will leave a lasting, negative impression on voters, resulting in enduring negative candidate assessments," he and his co-authors wrote. "Vote determinations are usually crystallized in advance of an election and few voters are likely influenced by late-breaking scandals."

The Trump factor

As Bird noted, U.S. President Donald Trump has lowered the barin terms of scandalfor all politicians. Despite allegationsof extramarital affairs, sexual misconduct and assault and racist comments, actions that may have felled other politicians, he survives.

"Is it in keeping of what people already expected of him, or is [it], 'Eh, it's Donald being Donald. There's a bit of that that comes into play," said Kim Wright, principal at Wright Strategies.

"What people are looking for is an authenticity. And as long as there is that authenticity then people are 'OK ,maybethis is a one-off.Maybe it is personality. But we know who we're getting."

Birdsaid Trump has a certain brand, and hissupporters have acceptedhis foibles and appreciate hisstrengths and that, to an extent, may have inoculated the president.

Political charisma

As Newmark noted in the study,political skill and charismatic candidates may better weather political storms.

Presidents like Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan were able to survive their respective scandals Clinton and Monica Lewinsky; Reagan and Iran-Contra because of their considerable political skills and charisma.

But those qualities are rare, they note.

"Few politicians possess the political acumen of Reagan or Clinton, making reliance on charisma an uncertain strategy for those embroiledin scandal."