Next week's NAFTA challenge: Restore momentum after Trump's latest 'bullying'

As he left the stage after an event in Charlotte, N.C.,on Friday, Donald Trump's team played the song You Can't Always Get What You Wantby the Rolling Stones.

It is fun to imagine it as a commentary on the NAFTA talks but was it a message for Canada, or Trump's supporters?

The renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement hit a rough patch Friday morning, after Trump's "off the record" comments about how the U.S. would notmake any compromisesand that any deal with Canada would be "totally on our terms."

For good measure, Trump repeated in public his threat to slap oppressivecar tariffs on Canadian imports if Canadawill notconcede.

"I've never seen, in my experience, this kind of bullyingjust abject bullying," said Jennifer Hillman, a former internationaltrade adjudicator and general counsel in the U.S. Trade Representative's office."I don't believe the majority of Americans support this."

Worse for Trump's supporters, it isn't delivering.

"This is a lot of talk of getting good deals, but we haven't seen any," she said.

Before Friday morning, Foreign Affairs Minister ChrystiaFreelandhad been emphasizing the "goodwill" that was evident throughout several "intense" sessions with American negotiators. Then Canadians had to acknowledgeTrump's unhelpful comments at the table.

Freelandshifted back to firm talking points about only signing a deal that was good for Canada.Negotiations paused for the weekend.

Freeland: 'we're not there yet'

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Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters she's optimistic a deal is still within reach, but 'we're not there yet.'

Undeterred, the White House notified Congress of itsintentions to reach apotential trilateral agreement in a formal letter Friday. The three countries now have another 30 days to drafta text if they want to hit a Congressional timeline that permits a signing ceremony before Mexico's government changes hands on Dec.1.

Having more time isa good thing, Hillman said, because she figures there isno deal without all three.

'Would this even work?'

"If Canada is not in, it has big implications on the rest of the text, and you're going to have to start rethinking a lot of the concepts that are in the text," she said.

The rules of origin that Mexico negotiated such as requiring 75 per cent North American content in vehicles were premised on existing supply chains that stretch across three countries, not two.

"If you pull Canadian content out, I don't know if they can get to that 75 per cent, particularly if they have a lot of Canadian aluminum or steel," she said. "All of a sudden: would this even work?"

Freeland says auto workers will get a better deal

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Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland spoke to reporters at the Canadian Embassy in Washington on Friday

Adding to that:whether Congress would passa deal between only two of the partners Hillman thinks notand serious legal questions about whether it's possible to reactivate provisions currently suspended in the previous CanadaU.S. free trade deal. "Very complicated," Hillman says.

American negotiators have a strong incentive to find a landing zone with Canadasoon. But does their boss really want a deal? That's arisk for everyone negotiating with the United States right now, Hillman said.

"Is this actually a good faith exercise to get an agreement? Or is this all about [wanting] to put a tariff wall around the United States?" she said, suggesting Trump could be using tariffs to reward friends and punish enemies.

"That's a highly cynical view, but to some degree worrying, that we're starting to go down."

Hillman's message to Canada: "Stay in there and keep negotiating. Don't give in to the bullying."

'You can't defend a bad deal'

Negotiating drama near the end is normal, said Ottawa-based trade consultant Adam Taylor, previously an adviser to former Conservative trade minister Ed Fast.

Hitting pause when things reach a politically sensitive stage isn't out of the ordinary, he said.Tough talk about not compromising is parfor the course.

"Was Trump actually saying that he has no room for compromise and there's going to be no give from the U.S. side?" Taylor said. "If so, that, obviously, is a problem, because Canada's not just going to roll over.That's not a negotiation, that's a capitulation."

The Trudeau government can't consider that, hesaid. "You can't defend a bad deal."

Taylor seessome threats asemptyand capable of de-escalation. Take the sunset clause issue:The U.S.threatened to insert a five-year automatic end to NAFTA, but in talks with Mexico last monthagreed to compromise with a 16-year term with a six-year review process.

"Both sides can't afford it to fail," he said."Trump's reputation as a dealmaker is on the line, ahead of crucial midterm [elections in the U.S.]."

He will want to be able to brag about the auto concessions he won from Mexico to the Republicanbase, and he needs Canada for that deal to work.

Trudeau on Trump's harsh words on NAFTA talks

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to reporters in Oshawa on Friday

Given Canada's reliance on U.S.trade, the idea of no deal being better than a bad deal for Canada is a "pick your poison" situation, Taylorsaid. "You're going to die anyway."

Talks restart Wednesday

Trump's comments"probably poisoned the well," he said, making it tough for Canada to make meaningful offers on Friday. They needed to send a message, and in that respect, taking a break for a few days is wise.

Where does that leave negotiations?

Trump's comments are a "momentum killer," he said. "The challenge next week will be to find a way to get momentum building again."

Chip Roh, a retired American lawyer and trade official, laughs at the idea that not reaching an agreement by Fridayis a problem.

Old trade hands know to question any deadline put in front of them, he said, and even the 30-day deadline ahead is "not as real as it looks."

"The truth is, [Trump] can't do this without Canada," he said. "He doesn't know this, but enough people around him do."

Trump isa dangerous guy, Roh said, because although he makes stupid threats that are easy to dismiss, "every once in a while,he delivers on them." He did earlier in the summer, when he laid on his steel and aluminum tariffs.

Roh believes other issues are going to come up before this is over, and said he cannot rule out that even if negotiators succeed, a new NAFTAmay not make it to signature for other reasons.

Under the circumstances, hitting pause was very sensible, he said."It was all done pretty politely."