Quebec election call: federal political dance begins

With Wednesday's election call in Quebec, Premier Pauline Maroiswill setoff a frantic race in theprovince and a delicate dance in Ottawa.

The Parti Qubcois is ahead in the polls and gaining momentum in the weeks leading up to the campaign.

Most pollsters, pundits, and politicians (for what they are worth) predict the oddsof a Parti Qubcois majority somewhere between "likely"and "a sure thing."

Although Marois hasnt yet formally committed to another sovereignty referendum, should she win a majority of the national assemblys 125 seats, those who would be called to arms for another national unity battle are bracing for it.

Look, this is the last hurrah of that generation, NDP Leader Tom Mulcair said recently in an interview with CBCs The House.

The strategy for federal(ist) politicians will come in three waves:

1st wave: Let the chips fall where they may

Federal politicians of all stripes will be reminded that this is Quebecs election and to stay out of it.

For some, its a question of not doing or sayinganything the PQ would quickly spin into interference from Ottawa in Quebecs affairsthereby triggering a backlash to federalist efforts.

For others, its about not being sure whose side members of your teammight come out on.

Thistask will be easiest for the governing Conservatives. With only five MPs in the province, its not very difficult to keep a tight leash on them.

Also, with the choice for Quebec votersbeing among a sovereigntist party, a soft-nationalist partyand a Liberal Party the Conservatives dont really have a horse in this race.

The bigger concern for the governing party is having someone expressthe good riddance sentiment felt by some pockets in the "rest of Canada"who are a little fatiguedafter decades of battles to keep Quebec in the country.

For the Liberals the goal is to not make things worse for their provincial cousins.

Justin Trudeaus year at the helm of the party has seen the support for the Liberals jump in Quebec,but sticking below 40 per cent.

The Trudeau name still holds bitter memories for some in the province who havent forgotten or forgiventhe War Measures Act being invoked during the 1970 October Crisis.

To be fair, not many of those who still curse Pierre Elliott Trudeau would vote for the federalist option in Quebec,

The risk lies in the simple mathematics one must always consider when pondering the "Quebec Question"in the current generation: roughly 30 per centof the population are die-hard federalists, 30 per centare puret durseparatists, and theremaining 40 per centwaverbetween the camps.

A polarizing figure must be certain his or her poles are aligned in the desired direction before intervening.

The NDP has the most challenging time of it. With fully three-quarters of Quebecs seats in the House of Commons, the NDPs Quebec caucus represents a cross-section of the provinces political landscape.

Although none of the MPs is currently openly advocating for Quebec sovereigntyor the PQ,there are many who have aligned with the sovereigntistQubc Solidaire.

The problem with Mulcair picking sides is that not all of his caucus may follow.

So, hes keeping it simple:"We didn't get involved in the provincial campaign last time around. We won't be getting involved this time," he told reporters on the eve of the election call.

Exempt from this non-interference rule, of course, is whats left of the Bloc Qubcois.

Down to fourMPs (after expelling one for deigning to criticize the PQs highly controversial charter of valuesand picking up another who defected from the NDP over its position on the Clarity Act) they are free to openly and vigorously support their provincial counterparts.

2nd wave: Turn the other cheek

Doctors swear a vow to do no harm.In the event of a PQ majority, that will become the mantra of federal politicians.

The latest polls from Quebec put support for sovereignty right about where its been for about a decade,hovering in the upper-30 per cent range. The PQ is doing what it can to change that,and will continue to do so.

The charter of values,was the first real salvo fromQuebec trying to bait Ottawa into constitutional battle.

While obviously objecting to the charter of values' clearly ethno-nationalistgoals, Ottawa has not made overt pre-emptive efforts to stop it..

The PQ is using the issue to polarize the electorate and returnthe battle in Quebec to a more favourable two-way byundermining the nascent CAQ.

It's not clear if this political ploy will also provoke a crisis of the magnitude necessary for the PQ to carry a sovereignty referendum.

Christian Bourque of Leger marketing says, It would take a severe crisis, like the death of Meech Lake, to sort of revive that flame. That isnt burning very high right now. And I dont see it right now, it doesnt seem to be in the cards."

While theeventuality of a third Quebec referendum may be a ways off,the next federal election will be 18 months down the road.

3rd wave: Crisis presents opportunity

Quebec will hold 78 of the House of Commons 338 seats after reallocation comes into effect in the next election.

The Conservatives proved in 2011 you dont necessarily need to win that many seats in the countrys second most populous province to form a majority government,but that is the exception, not the rule.

Its been a tough slog for the governing party to win (and then keep) seats in Quebec a PQ government spoiling for a fight wont make that any easier.

Few expect the NDPto fully repeat the "Orange Crush" of 2011 in the next election,but clearly Mulcairis pitching to Canadians that he is best positioned to carry the "No"banner in any eventual referendum campaign.

For the Bloc Qubcoisit could mean a new lease on life. Withanother referendum in the air, it could argue its place to defend Quebecs interestsin Ottawa should be renewed.

Although that would be quite a feat.

The BQformed in 1990 as the Meech Lake accordwas collapsing. At the time seven MPs from the thenProgressive Conservatives and the Liberals abandoned their parties to sit with the charismatic Lucien Bouchard.

Today, the Bloc Qubcoishas four members in the House of Commons, is leaderless, and Quebec has just set aside its differences with Ottawa and signed a $115-million deal on job training amove Quebec'sLabour Minister Agns Maltais says recognizes Quebec's "unique character."