Vancouver Island is shaping into a Conservative-NDP battleground in the next federal election

There's a storm brewing on Vancouver Island and this one isn't coming in off the coast.

When the next federal election rolls around, five of the six ridings the New Democrats hold on the island could be scooped up by the Conservatives,according to polls aggregator Eric Grenier of The Writ.

It's a potential shift that residents of Campbell River, B.C. are starting to notice on the ground.

"I feel the island is more conservative than it's been, especially the north island," saidKelsey McCrea, a mom of three who co-owns a local welding business with her husband.

"I think up to this point it's been more people's heartstrings voting NDP than their actual common sense. And I know for myself, my household, my family, all our friends, we will not be voting NDP. We will be voting Conservative."

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Liberals met this week on Vancouver Island, but the party stands little chance of winning there. CBCs Emma Godmere talks to voters in Campbell River, B.C., and to party strategists Mike McKinnon and Allie Blades about the looming NDP-Conservative fight for seats.

Island voters have largely supported New Democrats in the last few federal campaigns, while also sending Green Party Leader Elizabeth May to Ottawa and an additional Green MP in 2019.

Voters haven't sent a Liberal MP to Parliament since the 2008 election. And while no Conservatives currently hold a seat on the island, the partytooktwo of them in 2011, when Stephen Harper won a majority.

McCreasaidher vote is motivated by rising business costs. Her company is often hired to repair commercial fishing boats and build steel docks and boat ramps.

"We've noticed the cost of steel and aluminum has increased significantly since COVID, and it has not decreased," she said. "And that affects our business, and it affects what customers can afford on their end, and it affects the affordability of what we can produce for people on the whole island."

McCrea said she and her husband pay themselves and their employees average wages, which doesn't leave them much for their company.

"It's actually discouraging knowing that we can work so hard and still it's sometimes not enough," she said. "And that's where I feel the government in Ottawa does not realize that the middle class is being squeezed so tightly."

That disconnect between federal politicians and voters on Vancouver Island is also felt by Sophie Waterman, another Campbell River mother. She said she feels the federal government doesn't understand what it costs to raisea family.

"What I need to hear from a politician and I'm not a single issue voter, but this would sway me for sure if I had a politician really speak truthfully about the costs of childcare to families," said Waterman, an emergency room physician.

She said she's had to cut back on her hours and may soon give up her job entirelyto manage caring for her baby and toddler as a shift worker.

"For people in shift work, you just can't do it with full-time daycare and two working parents," she said.

"You have to have family or you have to pay for your village, right? You have to pay for people to come in and help you. And those costs have skyrocketed if we pay for the child care that we need to make our family function, it will be as much as our mortgage."

Still, Waterman said she'slikely to vote NDP or Liberal in next federal election and recognizes she could soon be in the minority.

"I don't see a lot of my values and what I have identified as traditional Vancouver Island values represented in the Conservative platform," she said.

"But I wouldn't be surprised if things do change, because people are really suffering here."

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Targeting the working vote

Mike McKinnon worked inside the NDP's headquarters in Ottawa during the last two federal campaigns, focusing on the party's efforts in British Columbia. Now based in Victoria as a senior consultant with Enterprise Canada, he said the key for New Democrats in the next election will be connecting with working voters about the challenges they face.

"The NDP has always fought for workers and workers' rights, and for people who are on the margins and struggling with the cost of living," he said. "And the opportunity for the NDP is to do a better job of showing that."

Allie Blades a campaign strategist who has been working with Conservative candidates in the area and also helped manage Pierre Poilievre's leadership campaign in the province underscored the importance of the labour vote.

"The voters on the island that all political parties need to reach are that labour vote," he said."Those people who are doing their job, they go to work, nine to five, and expect that by doing that, they can afford life in Canada. And right now, that seems to not be the case."

How the provincial parties resonate with voters in next month's B.C. election could be a real litmus test, said Vancouver Island University political science professor Jocelyne Praud.

"If the Conservatives, the B.C. Conservatives, this newish kind of party does well that would be very good news for the federalConservatives," she said.

"The fact that this new provincial Conservative party is suddenly becoming the main contender vis-a-vis the governing party, the governing New Democrats,I think thatprobably gives a lot of hope for the federal Conservatives right now."

Blades and McKinnonsaid they both plan to watch next month's results closely.

"[People] will have seen in the provincial election that there is a blue door and an orange door," saidMcKinnon.

"They will have seen the blue option much more closely than they ever have before. And that is something that is going to play a big role in the upcoming election."

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