As Venezuela courts chaos, some of Maduro's allies demand receipts of election win

Traditional allies appear to have abandoned Nicolas Maduroas protests rock Venezuela in the wake of Sunday's election, which the longtime president claims to have won with 51.2 per cent of the vote.

Maduro was quickly recognized as the winner by Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras and Bolivia, as well asRussia, Chinaand Iran. But he gotno recognition from nominally left-wing governments in the region's biggest countries:Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.

"Theheavy-hitting diplomatic players in the region havedemanded proof [of his win]," said Christopher Hernandez-Roy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

"I think the three of them have realized that the level of fraud is just so astronomically huge that nobody in their right mind can believe this result,and so it would be very difficult for them to join the usual chorus of leftist governments congratulating Maduro for his victory."

The Atlanta-based Carter Center, which had deployed observers in Venezuela, said on Tuesday evening that the election "did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic."

The U.S. and Canadahave been somewhat subdued in their reactions to Maduro's claimof victory.

WATCH | Venezuelans talk about the chaos that has followed election:

Venezuelans react to their country's election results, and the chaos that followed

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Duration 1:15

Many citizens spoke of the sadness they are feeling a day after the country's opposition and entrenched incumbent Nicolas Maduro both claimed victory in the presidential election.

Washington and Ottawaarecalling on Venezuela to release detailed vote results, as is the European Union, but neither the U.S. nor Canada has yet formally declaredrival candidate Edmundo Gonzlezthe winner.

The Trudeau government took a much more active rolefive years ago, whenJuan Guaidoemergedas a rival president to Maduro. Canada hosted the Venezuelan oppositionin Ottawa and, with Peru, formed the Lima Group of countries that wanted to oust Maduroby peaceful means.

Lula demands receipts

Brazil's President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva historically sympathetic to the socialist movement started by the lateVenezuelan leader Hugo Chavez spoke on Tuesday with U.S. President Joe Biden, and the two let it be known they were in agreement in insisting Maduro provide proof of his claimed victory.

InCaracas, Lula's envoy Celso Amorim met with Maduroon Tuesday and pressured him to release full results.So far, the Maduro government has only released an aggregate number, with no poll-by-poll breakdown.

Later that day, Lula went on Brazil's Globo TV and said the solution to the Venezuelan impasse was simple: "Present the voting records." He added that "those who aren't in agreement have the right to express themselves and prove why they don't agree, just as the government has the right to prove why it is correct."

Colombia's Foreign MinisterLuis Gilberto Murillo posted a video messageon X in which he said that "for the peace of Venezuela, it's necessary to know all the voting stations' final results, and that these be audited by the world."

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of Mexicowarned against outside interference and refrained from criticizing theVenezuelan leader directly, but alsocalled fortransparencyand the release of detailed vote counts, as didhis chosen successor and president-electClaudia Sheinbaum.

Those demanding detailed documentationare aware the Maduro government almost certainly will not be able to substantiate its claimswith returns from voting machines.

The Venezuelan opposition, however, says it won the election by a wide marginand that it has the receipts to prove it.

Paper trail of votes

The election took place at more than30,000 individual polling tables, each of which produced its own electronic vote. Those counts were reproduced on paper receipts called "actas" marked with a unique QR code and alphanumeric signature. By law, volunteer scrutineers are entitled to a copy.

The opposition which was much more organized and unified thanin the past recruited tens of thousands of scrutineers to monitor the election across the country, and says it was able to obtain actasfrom almost allpolling stations, which it has been rapidly uploadingonline.

WATCH |Freeland says she has serious concerns about Venezuela election results:

Freeland says she has serious concerns about Venezuela election results

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Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is asked if Canada accepts the results of the Venezuela election.

As of midnight Tuesday, 81 per cent of allactashad been digitized, givingEdmundo Gonzlezmore thanseven million votes and Maduroless than half that.

"We have the records showing our categorical and mathematically irreversible victory," said Gonzlez, a 73-year-old retired diplomat who stepped up after Venezuela's electoral commission banned opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from running.

"It's a two-to-one margin, which is whatlocal pollstersandinternational polling companies like Clear Path Strategies and Edison Researchhad been showing ahead of the vote," said Hernandez-Roy ofthe Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Some were saying that the opposition would get somewhere between 65 and 70 sort of per cent of the vote. Others said simply that Edmundo Gonzlez was up at least 25 points ahead of Maduro. So this is consistent with polling."

Diplomatic tensions

Astheopposition uploaded actason Tuesday morning, Peru recognized Gonzlez as president-elect.

Within hours, Venezuela broke off diplomatic relations with Peru and sixother Latin American countries, ordering them to close their embassies and withdraw their diplomats. All had alleged or implied there was fraud in Sunday's vote count.

Among them was Chile, whose socialist President Gabriel Boric stated on his X account "the results announced by the Maduro regime are difficult to believe."

At time of publication, many diplomats from the seven countriesaffected by expulsions remained in Caracas.

Argentina's President Javier Milei has long been one of the fiercest critics of Chavismo.

"Argentina will not recognize another fraud," Milei warned on his X account, "and hopes that this time the armed forces will defend democracy and the popular will."

The most dramatic situationsince Sunday occurred at theArgentinian embassy in Caracas, which remains surrounded by masked agents of the Maduro government. Diplomats inside the embassy say electricity has been cut off.

Members of Machado's campaign team had sought sanctuary inthe embassy. On Monday night, soon after the rupture in diplomatic relations, the embassy was surrounded by "colectivos,"an informal militiaof ruling Socialist Partywho wear street clothes and are often armed.

Maduro respondedby saying, "Traitor, coward, you couldn't go a round with me," addingMilei was "a Nazi fascist" with the face of a monster.

Arrests begin

Rallies in Caracas by both sides on Tuesday afternoon seemed to confirm the Maduro government has lost the streets.

Senior government figures said opposition leaders Machado and Gonzlez would be arrested, but that had not happened by time of publication.

The opposition says one of its leaders, Freddy Superlano,was takenfrom a house in Caracas by masked men in black uniforms. Less prominent figures of the opposition experienced similar abductions in various parts of the country.

By evening, there were unconfirmed reports that arrest warrants had already been signed for Machado and Gonzlez.

Arresting Machado would not be a simple operation. She is often accompanied by a volunteer escort of hundreds of motorcyclesorlarge crowds of sympathizers,a tactic that hercampaign perfected while touring Venezuela during the campaign.

All eyes on armed forces

The next steps for the Venezuelan government and opposition remain uncertain.

The socialist movement started by Hugo Chavez once popular with the majority of voters began to lose the streets of Venezuela a decade ago, whenChavez died, and that process now seems complete. But Madurostill controlsthe armed forces.

Both sides are watching for any change in that situation.

Machadohas openly harangued members of the security forces to switch sides, so far with little success. But two army captains published a video yesterday calling on their fellow soldiers to back her.

"The time has come to take the correct decisions for this historic moment," said Capt. Javier Nieto. "It's evident that we have a new president-elect."

The loyalties of the rank-and-file are uncertain, and the government has been reluctant to test them by ordering them to fire on crowds that could contain their own friends and family.

"The security forces are not monolithic," said Hernandez-Roy. "Your average Venezuelan soldier or your average policeman is also struggling with meeting the basic necessities of life and and feeding their family."

Maduro has warned that his United Socialist Partywon't leave power without a "fratricidal civil war." Machadotold a large crowd yesterday that the opposition "won't negotiate results. The only thing we'll negotiate is the transition."

The stage is set for a huge and possibly violent confrontation.