Fallout from coronavirus outbreak triggers 25% decrease in China's carbon emissions

In the midst of China's COVID-19 epidemic, the conditions for an unprecedented climate experiment have emerged.

Climate researchers canmeasure in real time what happens to carbon emissions when one of the world's largest economies is suddenly stalled, with entire cities locked down, highways emptied, airplanes grounded, factories shuttered and millions of people confined to their homes.

A continentaway,from his base in Helsinki, Finland, Lauri Myllyvirtawas able to piece together industry and financial data sources and satellite imagery to calculate the epidemic's impact on emissions: a decrease of about 25% in three weeks.

"In terms of the absolute volume of emissions, this is absolutely unprecedented," he said.

As a climate analyst with the Centrefor Research on Energy and Clean Air, Myllyvirta keeps a close eye on China's economic activity.

His analysis showed how reduced demand for coal from Chinese power plants combined withthe slowing of production inoil refineries andsteel plants created a decline in the country's major industrial sectors.

"In terms of global emissions, it's the biggest story of the year. There's no question about that," he said.

To support his analysis, he also studied satellite images of China's nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, a pollutant that is emitted through the burning of fossil fuels.

"That actually showed an even larger reduction of around 35 per centin NO2 levels, so it gave usconfidence that we're at least not overestimating when we say 25 per centor more," he said.

13,000 fewer flights a day

Another significant contributor to the emissions decrease was the dramatic decline in China's domestic and internationalair traffic, which account for about 15 per cent of global air travel emissions.

An analysisby the flight data agency Flightradar24 shows that since late January, 13,000 fewer flights arelanding and taking off each day from Chinese airports.

"In general, air traffic originating in China is down 80 per cent since the beginning of the year," Flightradar24 spokesperson Ian Petchenik said in an email.

The paradox of airline travel is one of the most intriguing aspects of the epidemic for AnnDale, director of the School of Environment and Sustainability at Royal Roads University in Victoria.

"We've got a virus that is spreading more rapidly because of our advances in airline travel. Ironically, it's also resulting in a decrease in that airline travel."

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She said it raises questions about how much international travel is sustainable.

"What are the limits and optimal scale of travelling? How many greenhouse gas emissions do you want to consume?" she said.

"Maybe it's time we started addressing questions about limits and scale on human consumption."

An economic shock that affects carbon emissions this dramatically is rare. Experts point to the 2008 global financial crisis as another moment when an unintended series of circumstances resulted in major reductions in carbon emissions.

"What it shows is that emissions are closely linked to economic growth," said Klaus Hubacek, an ecological economist at the University of Groningen, Netherlands."Once economic activities decline, you have a reduction of associated emissions."

'De-coupling' growth from carbon

Theentanglement ofeconomic activity and carbon emissions is one of the most vexing aspects of climate change mitigation.

For years, experts have debated how to separategrowth from carbon emissions,a concept known as de-coupling.

"The economy grows, the emissions grow, unless we have decoupling," said Hubacek, whose researchhas shown that reducingcarbon emissions in one country often results in a shift of carbon-intensive production to another country.

The task is also complicated by the challenge of lifting much of the world out of poverty while trying to reduce emissions. Hubacek points out that half of the world's population is still living on $3 a day.

Some academics are also studying the concept of degrowth,a school of thought where economic activity is deliberately reduced to slow climate change. The research is geared towardpolicies that would gradually scale back economic growthto the point where it'sin sync with global resources. The idea is touse localresources and changethe way people work so that less time is spent on economically oriented activity.

"I find it quite sympathetic and interesting but it's really, within academia, a niche. I don't think it has any political traction at this point," said Hubacek.

The various carbon mitigation strategies being considered around the world right now are based on a planned and co-ordinated approach to reducing emissions. So theempty highways and silent streets of Wuhan, China, are not somestark glimpse of a carbon-controlled future.

"Economic activity has to be reduced in some sectors and overall emissions have to decrease, but this is not in any way planned or a healthy way of reducing emissions," said Hubacek.

Myllyvirtahad a similar assessment of what's happening in China.

"Aplan to bring down emissions, even very rapidly, would not look like this," he said.

"Millions and millions of peopleare suffering in different ways because of what's happening in China. People are unable to access health care, people are unable to work. Many of themare losing income."

Having said that, some aspects of China's response to the coronavirus such as the construction of Huoshenshan Hospitalin Wuhan in just 10 days could be used as a model if the world decided to move rapidly to a green economy, he said.

"It would look more like that construction site for the hospital, mobilizing a lot of resources to build clean energy on a scale that would enable us to ditch fossil fuels in the span of a decade or two."

Myllyvirta said his colleagues in China who have been forced to work from home during the epidemic have already adapted.

"I have so many friendsand contacts who have logged on to a propervideo conferencing systemfor the first timebecause of this," he said. "Will we see more remote working in China going forward? That's something that has been adopted very rapidly."

Rapid recovery could increase emissions

The climate implications of COVID-19are still evolving.More flights are being cancelled as the epidemic spreads to other countries.

And theoutbreak is already being factored into global oil demand projections.

The International Energy Agency'soil market report this month stated that "global oil demand has been hit hard" by the virus andChina's economic slowdown. The report predicts demand will fall in "the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years."

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But those contractions in fossil fuel consumption are viewed as temporary. There are concerns that carbon emissions could rise sharply if Chinapushes for rapid economic recovery when the epidemic subsides.

Chinese officials could choose to stimulate the economy through large-scale, carbon-intensive construction projects as has happened in the past, saidMyllyvirta.

"If [China]actually wantsto grow the GDP sixper cent after what's happened during the past few weeks, that would meanan enormous amountof spending on new construction. And that would mean a lot of emissions."

When the country raced to recover from the previous financial crisisbybuilding infrastructure,the amount of emission-intensive cement used between 2011 and 2014 was staggering.

"In those three years, they consumed 50 per cent more cement than the U.S. in the whole of the 20th century," said Hubacek. "It's just mind-boggling."