Another El Nino is likely on its way: Here's what to expect

Fires north of the Arctic Circle. Record-setting temperatures in England. More than 60 dead in Japan and 70 in Quebec due to heat-related causes. A fast-moving fire that wiped out an entire Greek town, killing more than 90 people.

At the moment, drought and fire are ravaging much of the planet. This past June was the fifth warmest June on record, and the 402nd consecutive month above the 20th century average.

And theturbulent weather could continue, as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 per cent chance of another El Nino occurring this winter.

El Nino is part of Earth's natural process, characterized by a warming in the Pacific Ocean with repercussions across the globe, including higher temperatures and greater precipitation in various regions.

One of the strongest El Ninos on record occurred from the fall of 2015 well into 2016. In Canada,it broughtthe second-warmest winter since record-keeping began in 1948, whilethe World Health Organization reported that 60 million people were affected globally.

This video illustrates the drought that occurred across northern Europe at the end of July:

Following a summer of wild heat, it may seem worrying to know that another El Nino is on its way. Butthere's no need to panic.

"We're probably looking at a weak to maybe moderate [El Nino], but certainly nothing like 2015-2016," saidMike Halpert, deputy director ofNOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "That's just not in the cards."

Halpert notes there's still time for the weather agency to refine its El Ninoforecast the next one will be issued on Aug. 9if it develops at all.

But if it does develop, the effects in Canada will be felt more in the winter, particularly in the West, where temperatures would be warmer than average.

It's another story around the world. Typical El Nino-related effects are shifts in weather patterns: rain moves from areas where it would normally occur, leaving some areas in drought. After the El Nino event of 20152016, for example, the world's coral experienced the worst bleaching events ever seen.

Warming world

This year has been a La Nina yearthe opposite of ElNino:Instead of waters being warmer than usual in the Pacific, they're cooler than normal.

But it didn't seem to matter to the warming planet. The global temperaturefromJanuary to Maybroke the record for a La Nina year.

If an El Ninodoes manifest by the end of the year, it won't push the global temperature shockingly upward. Rather, it will just slightly raise the planet's temperature higher than it would have otherwise been.

That's because the planet's response to an El Nino takes time, saysDerekArndt,chief ofNOAA'sNationalCentersfor Environmental Information (NCEI) monitoring branch.

Andthough this has been the summer of heat with almost two months to go he said forecasters aren't expecting it to surpass the hottest year on record, which occurred in2016.

But it will still be one forthe booksand Arndt says that's concerning.

"It's really important to considerthat where we finish this year [whether it]be third orfourth or fifth or something like thatit will be warmer than anything we may have seen five years ago," Arndt said.

"We're in a new neighbourhood, and we're competing in a new neighbourhood, and we have left the climate of the 20thcentury in the dustandwe're in the process of leaving the climate of the last decade behind."