How Trump could emerge the political loser over government shutdown

While no party will likely emerge as a significant political winner from the U.S. partial government shutdown, President Donald Trump may stand to losethe most, some experts say.

"Whoever owns the shutdown loses," said political historian David Eisenbach. "When Trump claimed ownership, that was an unusual thing to do."

"Thesymbolism of a government shutdown never works in favour of the party or the sidethat initiated it."

The partial shutdown, which stops funding for about a quarter of federal government programs, enteredits sixthday on Thursday, with no deal expected any time soon.

The sticking pointis over fundingfor border security. Trump has requested around $5.7 billion US, money that he wants to spend on building awall along the border between the United States and Mexico.Proponents say it will keep illegal immigrants out of the U.S.

The Democrats have countered with$1.3 billion US for border securityand oppose the creation of a border wall.

'Proud' to shut down government

In a public meeting two weeks agowith House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader ChuckSchumer, Trump said he would be "proud to shut down the government for border security" and that he would "take the mantle. I will be the one to shut it down."

But Eisenbachsuggested Trump has made a political miscalculation. His base may be committed to thisidea, but many Americansincluding theformerBarack Obama voters who voted for him in 2016are more focused on issues like the economy.

"The voters that he needs, the voters that decide elections are not ideologically committed to a wall," he said.

As the deadline for a government shutdown approached, Trump appeared ready to strike a deal on funding for border security.But he changed his mind aftersome of his more vocalsupporters slammed him, accusing the president of reneging on one of his core promises to build a wall.

"I think he's pandering to those loud voices. But it's a small number. They're not the ones who are going to be responsible for his re-election,"Eisenbachsaid.

According to a Reuters/Ipsospoll in late November, less than a third of those surveyed (31 per cent) said improved border security should be among the top three priorities for Congress.

"I thought it was a politically bad move on his part because because he's over-interpreting the significance of that wall," Eisenbach said.

Bill Schneider, a professor of policy, government and international affairsat George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., said he doesn't believe either political party will come through this showdown looking like a winner.

The Democrats mistakenly assume that the public overwhelmingly views the partialshutdown asa crisis even thoughit doesn't affect that many Americans in relative terms, he said.Essential services includingSocial Security, Medicare and the military continue to be funded, he said.

President 'didn't do his job'

Still, the political ramifications will be bad for the president overall, Schneider said.

"Whenever a president allows the government not to function, it means he isn'tdoing his job," he said.

"I think if anyone is hurt he will be hurt," he said. "It isn't a crisis but maybe the lingering effect of this for the next two years will be the president didn't do his job."

The longest federal government shutdown lasting 21 days, occurred in December 1995 and January 1996, triggered by conflicts between President Bill Clinton and congressional Republicans over Medicare funding and government spending. Clinton is widely viewed as having won the political battleand was re-elected in 1996.

In 2013, the government shut down for 16 days after Republicans demanded to strip funding for Obama's signature health-care legislation or delay its implementation. Republicans suffered in public opinion polls.

Backfire on Democrats

But Marc Thiessen, former speech writer for George W. Bush and a resident fellow with the American Enterprise Institute conservative think-tank, offered a different take.He believes that if Trump is viewedto have been willing to compromise, it's theDemocrats who could suffer.

Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney has saidthe White House presented Schumera counter-offer over the weekend. Mulvaney, who is also the budget director, said the offer was somewhere between Trump's $5.7-billion US request and $1.3 billion US Democrats have offered.

"If [Trump's] the one that's compromising and the Democrats are demanding absolute surrender, then it's gonna backfire on them because that's not what the American people want,"Thiessen told Fox News.

"If he can be responsible and keep making concrete offers that are concessions to the Democrats then over time, they will start to own the mantle of the shutdown."

Meanwhile, Republican strategistEvan Siegfried said in an email to CBC News thata sizeable portion of Americans that haven't paid as close attention to how the shutdown occurred.

"They are more likely to see this as a problem with D.C. as a whole. To them, this is further proof that Washington is dysfunctional no matter who is in charge," he said.