U.S and Iran: A 'moment of real possibility'

The much-anticipated handshake never happened. And while theirspeeches to the UN General Assembly offeredno major breakthrough between their two countries, U.S. President Barack Obama and Iranian PresidentHassanRouhanidid signal first steps toward a potential thaw in relations.

"I think we're in a moment of real possibility, said SuzanneMaloney, an expert in Iran and a senior fellow attheSabanCenterfor Middle East Policy. I'd been arguing since June 14, when it was clearRouhaniwas moving toward avictory [in Iranian elections], that this was an effort by Tehran torebranditself in the world and to negotiate more seriously on the nuclear issue. There can be no skepticism on those two points.

ButMaloneycautioned that despite the signals, the United States and Iran, after 34 years of hostility, are still a ways away from rapprochement.

It would be extraordinary and probably unsustainable if you had that kind of breakthrough with no prior or little prior diplomatic contact simply on the basis of these minimal signals and the back andforthsof today," she told CBC News.

No interest in escalating tensions

In his speech, Obama actually spent little time on Iran but said he was "encouraged" byRouhani'selection. He added, however, that his "conciliatory words will have to be matched by actions that are transparent and verifiable."

Meanwhile,Rouhani, said Iran was ready to enter talks "without delay" and insisted his country was not interested in escalating tensions with the U.S. But he insisted Iran must retain the right to enrich uranium, andvigorously denied that his country was seeking to build a nuclear weapon.

With Irans economy strangled by economic sanctions imposed on it over its nuclear program,Rouhaniis putting out signals that they are eager to cut some kind of deal quickly,Maloneysaid.

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Whether its because they fear the political backlash and want to be able to demonstrate that a deal is possible or because the president knows he has to deliver on his campaign slogans of improving the economy, she said. The Iranians for the first time really seem as though they have a serious incentive to get something done."

Although there was a lot of buzz over a possible historic handshake or meeting between the two presidents, the meeting never materialized.

Maloney said the whole initiative was a big American misstep, and that there was no possibility the Iranians were going to put their new president in a photoop that would have netted them nothing.

It was just too big a political risk. It was sure to come with blow back from hardliners, she said. "I think it was poorly managed. Anyone who understands where the Iraniansare coming from could have known no matter what their team was saying,this had very limited prospects of succeeding.

A different kind of face

Still,Geneive Abdo,an expert on Iranian domestic politics anda fellow at the Stimson Centerpublic policy institutebased in Washington, D.C., told CBC Newsthat she thought Rouhanis speech was really significant because it presented sucha different kind of face of Iran than former president MahmoudAhmadinejad.

Unlike his predecessor, known for his fiery rhetoric at such forums, Rouhani presented a much more moderate tone a culmination of his so-called charm offensive to the Western media leading up to the speech.

He still outlined Irans long-standing grievancesagainstthe West,but articulated them in a more sophisticated and thoughtful way, Abdonoted.

Whats different is a new desire for reconciliation. Ahmadinejad was all about hostility. Hostility toward the West, hostilitytoward Israel.Rouhaniis not about hostility.

He said in very direct language theres now chance for peaceor reconciliation. I dont think he would have used that language if they had no intentions," Abdo said. "But skeptics are correct in demanding there be something concrete that follows these promises.

As for Obama, the president took a big step when he said his administration would not be seeking regime change, said Reva Bhalla, vice-president of global analysis at Stratfor and an expert on Middle Eastern affairs.

"That's a pretty notable shift especially from a lot of the rhetoricfrom the Bush administration onempowering the Iranian people to effect change in the Islamic republic," Bhalla said.

Diplomacy will need time

She thought Rouhani was quite reserved in his speech and that any significant diplomatic development is going to take time.

"Right now were still very much in the gesture phase. All the right things are being said. When we get into the meat of the negotiations, that's where we're going to hit some real sticking points," she said in a phone interview.

Overall, we're in a very new and I think important phase in U.S.-Iranian relations. This is by no meansa breakthrough yet.

Its still unclear whatconcessions Iran is willing to give onthe nuclear issue. Its expecting the U.S. will show some signs of good faith through an easing up of sanctions, but that could prove difficult as many of those sanctions arewrapped up in congressional legislation, Bhalla said.

As well, those same sanctions have driven Iran to the negotiating table, meaning the U.S. may not be too keen to ease up on them, she said.

As for the immediate future, U.S.Secretary of State John Kerry has been tasked with pursuing the prospect of a nuclear agreement with Iran. Kerry, along with representatives from five other world powers, is to meet Thursday with Iran's new foreign minister, MohammadJavadZarif.

"I think that's where we have some real chance of seeingI don't want to go so far as [a] 'breakthrough' but seeing some real positive momentum, Maloney said.