What's next in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran

The U.S and Iran may have taken a step back from the brink of war, but the underlying tension remains, analysts say, leaving the two countries back in the same tense standoff that's existed since U.S. President Donald Trump stepped away from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.

In a speech from the White House on Wednesday to address Iran's missile strikes the night before against two bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops, Trumphighlighted the fact there were noAmerican casualties. The president said Iran appears to be standing down from its previous threats of severe retributionand hegave no indication the U.S. would unleash a military response.

IranianSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the attacks a "slap onthe face" of the U.S.

The Iranian assault was a response to Trump authorizing the targeted killing last week ofGen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran'selite Quds Force and a revered figure in that country.Trump called Soleimania ruthless terrorist who directed attackson U.S. soldiers in Iraq andwas planning new attacks on American targets before he was stopped.

"The response by President Trump [on Wednesday] is that he's basically happy to leave it here, call it a draw and just re-emphasize the grievances that the U.S. has against Iran," said Hussein Banai, a professor of international studies at Indiana University.

Watch Trump's response to Iran's missile strikes against military bases in Iraq.

Trump says new sanctions coming on Iran, will seek NATO's help

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U.S. President Trump says Iran's destructive ways are over, and he will reach out to NATO for help

Trump on Wednesday pledged to continue the so-called maximum pressurecampaign against Iran, promisingto impose additional economic sanctions on the country. He didn't provide any details about the new sanctions but said they"will remain until Iran changes its behaviour."

Buying time until the next clash

Banai saidthe threat of more sanctions will mean little to Iran, already suffering from crippling U.S. restrictions on its economy and oil exports. The value in threatening more sanctions, Banai said, is more strategic for the White House.

"It gives the Trump administration another way of responding. It is an option Washington has that's not a military option," he said.

But by continuing to impose sanctions, Trump is sticking with the policy that has underpinned the current tensions between the two countries, said Ali Vaez, senior Iran analystwith the International Crisis Group, a Belgium-based think-tank.

While the Pentagon says the missile strikes were designed to kill American soldiers,Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarifclaimed the attackswere "proportionate measures in self-defence."

Vaezsaid it doesn't appear Iran wanted to kill U.S. soldiers.

"Although Trump is taking the off ramp that the Iranians have provided by deciding not to target any Americans in this retaliatory strike that they conducted, he is still sticking to the policy, and that means we're just buying time until the next clash between the two countries," said Vaez.

Iran has indicated in the past, before the Soleimani killing, that it would come to the negotiating table if the U.S. eased sanctions. Vaez said Trump has givenno indication he's willing to ease the sanction burden,so any military de-escalation won't directly lead to talks between the two sides.

"I don't think President [Hassan] Rouhani would be able to meet with President Trump after the assassination of Iran's most revered military figure," Vaez said. "So I doubt that it's realistic to imagine that a diplomatic settlement can occur during President Trump's first term."

But other analysts, such asBehnamBen Taleblu with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a conservative-leaning think-tank based in Washington, D.C., saidTrump is right to continue the maximum pressure campaign.

"If you start removing sanctions or even watering them down or waiving them before you get to the negotiating table, you've already given up your leverage," he said.

More Iranian aggression

Will Todman, an analystwith the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington, D.C.,said the return to a situation of unease and steady tension may lead to more Iranian aggression in the region.

He said Trump's response Wednesdayshowed Iran how far it can go without provoking a major response.

"That red line is a U.S. casualty, so I would be very surprised if Iran conducted any future attacks that resulted in U.S. casualties, because they know there will be a response to that."

Instead of direct, highly visible attacks like the one this week, Todman predicts Iran's proxy forces in the region will continue aggressions, like the attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, or the attack on a Saudi oilfield, which escalate economic and political tensionbut can't always be traced back to the Iranian regime.

"I think there might be a period of re-calibrating from Iran, but after a while I would expect these attacks to continue, because ultimately nothing has really changed."

Barbara Slavin, a Mideast analyst with the Atlantic Council and author ofBitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S., and the Twisted Path to Confrontation, said European countries may step in totry to mediate the situation. She expects the tit-for-tat between Iran and the U.S. should stop temporarily.

"But Iran is still under maximum pressure sanctions and it is going to continue to respond to those sanctions until the United States makes it some sort of offer, which it has yet to do," she said.

Holding pattern until November

Banai said the relationship between Trump and Iran is so poisoned now, there is little possibility of a breakthrough before the U.S. presidential election in November. So, while smaller attacks from Iran are likely to continue, the situation will essentially be in a holding pattern, he said.

"I think the Iranians are basically going to have to wait this out and see whether Trump stays in office or there is a new administration that would offer an opportunity to get the relationship on a different path."

Todman said the risk of either side miscalculating how far to push their rivalremains high. And while Trump thrives on uncertainty and acting unpredictably, recent events show he still wants to avoid all-out war.

"I think actually this episode has shown that he's a bit more predictable thanwe thought and that military action would really only come if and when there's a U.S. casualty."

Banaisaid the apparent de-escalation of the current tension isn't surprising, because Iran cannot afford to engage in a conventional war with the U.S.

"So, I think we'll see these cycles of low-to-medium intensity retribution between the U.S. and Iran. But more than that, I don't think so."