Abe to push reform of Japan's pacifist constitution after election win

Japanese Prime Minister ShinzoAbe's ruling bloc was headed for a big win in Sunday's election,bolstering his chance of becoming the nation's longest-servingpremier and re-energising his push to revise the pacifistconstitution.

Abe's Liberal Democratic Party-led (LDP) coalition has won acombined 310 seats, reaching a two-thirds "super majority" inthe 465-member lower house, with 11 seats still up for grabs,broadcaster TV Asahi said.

A hefty win raises the likelihood that Abe, who took officein December 2012, will have a third three-year term as LDPleader next September and go on to become Japan'slongest-serving premier. It also means his "Abenomics" growthstrategy centred on the hyper-easy monetary policy will likelycontinue.

Final official results from the election, which coincidedwith an approaching typhoon, are expected early on Monday.

The U.S.-drafted constitution's Article 9, if takenliterally, bans the maintenance of armed forces. But Japanesegovernments have interpreted it to allow a military exclusivelyfor self-defence.

Backers of Abe's proposal to clarify the military'sambiguous status say it would codify the status quo. Criticsfear it would allow an expanded role overseas for the military.

Abe said he would not stick to a target he had floated ofmaking the changes by 2020. "First, I want to deepen debate andhave as many people as possible agree," he told a TVbroadcaster. "We should put priority on that."

The LDP's junior partner, the Komeito, is cautious aboutchanging the constitution, drawn up after Japan's defeat inWorld War Two. Several opposition parties favour changes, butdon't necessarily agree on details.

Referendums risky

Amendments must be approved by two-thirds of each chamber ofparliament and then by a majority in a public referendum.

"Now that pro-constitutional change parties occupy more thantwo-thirds of the parliament, the constitution will be the mostimportant political issue next year," said Hidenori Suezawa, afinancial market and fiscal analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities. "And as we saw in the U.K. ... a referendum could be tricky."

So while Abe is likely to be prime minister for the time being,it is too early to say whether he can stay in power until 2021."Abe declined to say if he'd run for a third term.

Abe had said he needed a new mandate to tackle a "nationalcrisis" from North Korea's missile and nuclear threats and afast-aging population, and to approve his idea of divertingrevenue from a planned sales tax hike to education and childcare from public debt repayment.

He called the poll amid confusion in the opposition camp andan uptick in his ratings, dented earlier in the year by scandalsover suspected cronyism and a perception he had grown arrogantafter nearly five years in office.

Abe has backed U.S. President Donald Trump's tough stancetowards North Korea, which has test-fired missiles over Japan,that all options, including military action, are on the table.Trump is to visit Japan Nov. 5-7 to reaffirm the leaders' tightties.

Abe's gamble pays off

Abe's snap poll gamble had seemed risky some earlyforecasts saw the LDP losing a significant chunk of seats after Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, often floated as a possiblefirst Japanese female premier, launched her conservative Partyof Hope.

That party absorbed a big chunk of the failed mainopposition Democratic Party, which abruptly decided to run nocandidates of its own. But voter enthusiasm soon waned despiteits calls for popular policies such as an exit from nuclearpower and a freeze on the planned sales tax rise.

• Japan wrestles with future of its pacifist constitution ahead of election Sunday
• 'We're scared, obviously': Japanese worry over growing North Korean nuclear threats

Koike did not run for a lower house seat herself she wasin Paris for a climate change event on Sunday and failed tosay whom her party would back for prime minister.

"We had sought to put policies first. But we ended up with avery tough outcome, so I deeply apologise for that," Koike toldNHK.

A new Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ),formed by liberal former DP members, was vying with Koike'sparty for the top opposition spot, although both are now set tohave just a fraction of the LDP's presence.

"Day by day, we felt we were getting more voter support forour call to revive more decent politics, and not fret aboutwhether it's right or left wing," said CDPJ lawmaker TetsuroFukuyama.

Several experts noted the ruling bloc's win was less avictory for the conservative, long-ruling LDP than a defeat fora divided opposition.

"Simply put, this was the self-destruction of theopposition," said Zentaro Kamei, a senior research fellow atthink tank PHP Institute and former LDP legislator.

Shinjiro Koizumi,the LDP lawmaker son of popular formerpremier Junichiro Koizumi, warned against LDP complacency.

"It's not just that our party has become arrogant andcomplacent. People are also getting increasingly fed up withus," he told NHK.

Abe, 63, has already led the LDP and its partner, theKomeito, to four landslide wins since he took the helm of theparty. But turnout has been low and the LDP has typically wonwith about 25 percent of eligible votes. Others either stayedhome or backed opposition parties.

Kyodo news agency estimated turnout on Sundaywhen heavyrain from powerful Typhoon Lan lashed much of Japanat 53.7per cent, one point above the record low in the last lower houseelection in 2014.