Kim Jong-un views nuclear weapons as a way to escape fate of Saddam and Gadhafi

William Tobey, anuclear non-proliferation expert who has takenpart in pastSix Party Talks with North Korea, says anyone who claims to perfectly understand the motivations of the North Korean government, and does not live inPyongyang, is probably blowing smoke.

ButTobeyandmost experts agree thatNorth Korean leader Kim Jong-un's No. 1 goal is self-preservation. For Kim, thepursuit of nuclear weapons and amissile program is a rationalway to stave offattempts by the U.S. to overthrowhis regime.

"I think most people ascribe a motivation of regime preservationto their nuclear programs," Tobey said. "So it would be used to deter any attacks that would be aimed at dislodging the government."

Nuclear 'treasure sword'

The North Korean government hassaid as much in its public statements, Tobey said, and those shouldbe taken "at face value."

A commentarypublished by North Korea's state KCNA news agencyin January last year stated that"history proves that powerful nuclear deterrenceservesas thestrongest treasure sword for frustratingoutsider's aggression."

The piece suggested North Korea fears suffering the same demise as Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Moammar Gadhafi's Libya, that neither could "escape the fate of destruction after being deprived of their foundations of nuclear development and giving up undeclared programs of their own accord."

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PhilipYun, a former senior adviser to two U.S. co-ordinators for North Korea at the Department of State, said that he has been inhundredsof hours of negotiations with the North Koreans. "Every single time during that period, they talked about [Slobodan] Milosevicand they talked aboutSaddamHusseinandsubsequentlytalked about Gadhafi if theyhadnuclear weapons they'd still be there."

The latest series of North Korean missile and nuclear weapontests has sparked a war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and Pyongyang.Trump has threatened the state with "fire and fury,"while North Korea has threatened to strike the U.S. territory of Guam.

Preserving the dynasty

If North Koreatruly believes an attackis imminent, it wouldlaunch its own strike, believing it hasnothing to lose, said TomCollina, director of policy at Ploughshares Fund, a think-tank dedicated to reducing the dangers of nuclear weapons.

But North Korea would not attack "out of the blue," because it knows that would be suicidal,the end of theregime,he said.

"These people are smart about preserving themselves and their dynasty," Collina said. "They may be willing to starve their people, they may be willing to have everyone in the world be their enemy, but they are survivors."

"The first rule of the Kim dynasty is to preservethe Kim dynasty. And the second rule of the Kim dynasty is to preserve the Kim dynasty."

After the past 60 years, it's unlikely the U.S. could say anything toconvince North Korea it has nothing to fear from Washington in terms of regime change, Tobey said.

Part of North Korea'sfounding narrative is to portray itself as a nation beset by aforeign enemy.

"It's desperately poor, desperately totalitarian. The only thing they've got left is nationalism," Tobey said.

Nuclear pride

The possession ofpowerful weapons gives North Koreans bragging rights thatcan engender nationalist pride.

"How many countries have a nuclear device? Not many," said Yun."How many peoplecan shoot a rocket up into the sky?Not very many. You're part of the nuclearclub, and it'sbetter than SouthKorea, which is not. They don't have these capabilities."

There is also an economic component to the pursuit of weapons, Yun said.Shortly after the death of his father, Kim Jong-un pledged to developthe economy and improvepeople's livelihoods.

"So he's on the hook for this. He's got to help them. He's at least got to make sure the core elite are with him," Yun said. "The nuclearweapons create a security blanket for him to then concentrate on the economy."

Yun said Trump may be making a significant mistake by sending signals he wants to break the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by former president Barack Obama.

"[North Korea] will have no incentive to make a deal with us. We're shooting ourselves in the foot with North Korea."

The U.S., he said, must employ a carrotand stickapproach, with the first step to get North Korea to freeze its programs.

Tobey said he believes the "no viable options" view is a myth and thatthe U.S., South Korea and Japan need to step back and take a deep breath. North Korea, he reminded, is a tiny country, with a tiny economy, and it knows the regime would end if it deployed any seriousweapons.

"Wemanaged to deter the Soviet Union for decades with basically rough parity in the two military arsenals. There's no comparison with U.S. and North Koreamilitary capabilities. Wecan deter them."

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