Obama vs. Romney: 4 ways to pick a debate winner

Tonight'spresidential election debatecould be a defining campaign moment for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who could dramatically change the course of the election with a strong performance against U.S. President Barack Obama.

Or, maybe not.

In recent days, professors, pundits and political observers have talked about what littleeffect a debate will have on the campaign. Some have pointed to a 2008 Gallup studyexamining election polling trends.Itfound that except for the years 1960 and 2000 debates had little impact on the likely outcome.

But as some recent polls suggest,the race remains tight andany advantage could give a candidate the slight edge he needs to solidify a lead.Therefore it's Romney, trailing the president, particularly in theprecious swing states, who could gain the most advantage from a successful night.

"They dont change the underlying dynamics. I agree with that analysis and I dont think these debates will do that either," Tom Bevan,co-founder ofthe political website RealClearPolitics, told CBC News. "That being said, I do think the debates present an opportunity for both candidates, and in particular for Mitt Romney as the challenger, to go back on offence."

Bevan said Romneyhas "taken a pounding in the media over the last three weeks or so "and this gives him a chance to regain control of the narrative."

"He gets to stand on stage, face to face, side by side with the leader of the free world and make his case directly to the American people without that media filter and so in that sense I think it is an important opportunity."

For their part, campaigns have ignored the "debates don't matter" advice as eachcandidate has spent days preparing for tonight's contest. Obama flew to a resort in Henderson, Nev., to take part in mock debates against Senator John Kerry, who stood in for Romney. According to ABC News, Kerry had been studying years of tape of past Romney debate performances.

Romney prepared by using Ohio Senator Rob Portman as his Obama stand-in. According to the New York Times, Romney's team has also"equipped him with a series of zingers that he has memorized and has been practising on aides since August."

Tonights debate, one of three scheduled, is being held at the University of Denver and will focus on the economy. It will bemoderated by Jim Leher from PBS.Other topics will include health care, the role of government and governing. Although it's often difficult to declare an absolute winner, here are four areasin which a candidate's performance can be examined.

1. Whocomes off as the betterdebater

Republicans and Democrats have recently sought to downplay the debating skills of their respective candidate to lessen expectations,and have actuallyheaped praise on their opponent. Romney adviser Beth Myers recently said, in regardsto the debate, that Obama is a"universally acclaimed public speaker." In turn, Obama himself has said that Romney's "a good debater I'm just OK."

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"I don't think either of them isa very good debater," David Birdsell, dean of the Baruch College School of Public Affairs, told CBC News. Although Obama is one of the most "compelling orators" in a long-form prepared speech, "he's not so good in the debate formats. He tends to show his petulant side.He can be condescending. He takes a while to get going."

Obama has also been criticized for being long-winded and campaign officials have said his debate practice sessions have includedpreparing shorter and more precise answers.

Birdsell said Romney can be very effective in limited sallies but has the capacity to run off the rails.

"But when he's needed to be focused, when he's needed to pick up the attack strategy in particular against Newt Gingrich in the Florida debate, he can be very effective at that."

Romney also has the advantage, like any challenger against a sitting president, of a "big barn door of[the president's]first-term record to shoot at," Birdsell said.

2. Who makes the better case foreconomic stewardship

Coming into the campaign, it was widely believed that the slow economicgrowth and high unemploymentgave Romney anadvantage over Obama. But recent polls show thatboth candidates are about even when it comes to voter trust in who can handle economic challenges.

Obama will make the case that under his leadership, the economy is recovering, jobs are being created and that the country mustcontinue on the path he has laid out. Romney will slam Obama, saying his policies havehurt thecountry'seconomic outlook and that he has failed in creating asubstantial amount ofjobs.

Soexpect theRepublican candidateto go after the president on racking upthe deficit and the debt and to hammer away at him onthecurrentunemployment rate.

"I think he needs to be aggressive and not just press the case against Obama[but] atevery opportunity to confront Obama with his record on the economy. And I think his base wants to see him do that," Bevan said.

ButObamawill most likely bring up the jobs saved due to his auto bailout and go after Romneyon taxes, accusing him of wanting tocuttaxes for"millionaires and billionaires," who he believes need to pay more. Hemay also makereference to Romney's own recent disclosure, that he paid 14.1 per cent income tax.

Romney has said he wants to cut tax rates by 20 per cent, but he has released few details on how that would be offset in budget cuts, leaving him vulnerable to a possible attack by Obama that his plan would hurt social programs for the most needy.

3. Who makes thefewest gaffes or best exploits previous misstepsof their opponent

Observers will be parsing every sentence looking for a possible gotcha gaffe during the debate. During the primary debates, Romney's most notable gaffe wastopropose to Texas Governor Rick Perry they have a$10,000 bet over a disagreementon health-care policy. In 2008, Obama seemed dismissive of his opponent Hillary Clinton when he said "you're likable enough."

But it's other controversial statements that Obama and Romney have made during the campaign that could be used as fodder by each candidate.

Obamacould put Romney on the defence over his '47 per cent' comments, captured on video at a fundraiser, in which hesaid that nearly half of Americans consider themselves victims and are dependent on the government.

And although the debate is about the economy, Romney may try tobring up Obama's "bumps in the road" commentmade during an interview with 60 Minutes when he was asked about the recent events in the Middle East. Many Republicans pounced on the comment, accusing the president of dismissing the deaths of four Americans including the ambassador during the attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya.

4.Who benefits from a draw

Bevan said he doesn't agree that Romney needs a knockout or a "Hail Mary"' or "game changer" performance.

"I think he needs to acquit himself well, certainly. Usuallyinthese debates you don't come away with a clear winner. Youll talk to 10 different people and youll get different interpretations of how theyperformed, what they said, that kind of thing," Bevan said.

But Birdsell said that for Romney to win, he has to win outright and that a draw would go to Obama, since he's already up in the polls.

"Romney has to win. Romney has to make news, that probably means he has to be more aggressive to get that done. He can't afford to play it safe," Birdsell said.