Patrick Brown: China and the case of the missing Politburo member

Gripped by The Case of the Missing Politburo Member, hundreds of millions of people tuned in to China Central Televisions nightly newscast last night, hoping for an explanation of Vice-President Xi Jinpings mysterious disappearance. The newscast, as usual, was dominated by dull accounts of the daily doings of senior leaders and the people they met, but Xi was, for the 10th day in a row, conspicuous by his absence.

The rumour that the CCTV news would include an important announcement turned out to be unfounded, leaving space for all the other rumours about the man who issupposed to be China's presidentfor the next10 years to gain strength, and for new ones to start by the second.

The internet, like nature itself, abhors a vacuum. Gaps in information are immediately filled by speculation. China's internet censorshave blocked any mention of Xi's name, his nicknames, and even the names of ailments that he might be suffering from, but the net is awash with rumours that he is missing from public life because of a back injury, a heart attack, a mishap in the swimming pool, or, less plausibly, a car accident and even an assassination attempt.

'We have told everybody everything'

The governments propaganda apparatus has been less than helpful. Asked about the vice-president's health and whereabouts, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei answered, "I have no information on that to provide to you."

He responded testily to followup questions with, "We have told everybody everything," and, "I hope you will raise serious questions."

Xi, heir-apparent to President Hu Jintao, was last seen in public on Sept. 1, when he gave a speech at the Communist Party's elite training centre, the Central Party School. He suggested that officials beginning a course there should spend their time "thinking critically about major national issues" rather than using the opportunity for "expanding personal contacts and inviting guests to dinner." He may be taking his own advice, but we have no way of knowing that. He has not been heard from since.

It is highly unusual for a politburo member to be missing from the CCTV news, and from the pages of the People's Daily, China's journal of record, for even a couple of days. Questions began to be raised in earnest when Xi cancelled a scheduled meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton last Wednesday. He has since missed meetings with foreign prime ministers Helle Thorning-Schmidt of Denmark and Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore. China attaches huge importance to these set-piece handshakes with diplomatic visitors, and such unexplained cancellations are extremely rare.

On Saturday, Xi's name was missing from the list of participants at a meeting of the Central Military Commission to discuss relief work for last week's earthquakes in Yunnan and Guizhou provinces.

He is deputy chairman of the commission, and senior officials are normally very concerned to be seen to be paying close attention to natural disasters.

After Xi missed his appointment with Clinton, American officials said they had been told by Chinese counterparts that he had hurt his back, perhaps on the soccer field. Chinese leaders do vanish from the public eye from time to time, only to reappear a few days later without explanation. Discussion of any health problems or medical treatments is taboo, so it does seem entirely plausible that Xi has vanished from sight because of a minor injury or ailment, and quite possible that his official diary will pick up without comment some day soon.

Bo scandal lingers

There would be less of a firestorm of speculation if the career of another senior politician had not suddenly imploded earlier in the year amidst a flood of colourful rumours, many of which turned out to be true. The case of Bo Xilai, who was a contender for promotion to one of the nine seats on the Politburo standing committee, is still unresolved. His wife,Gu Kailaihas been found guilty of the murder of a British businessman, and the police chief who triggered the scandal by seeking asylum in a U.S. consulate, Wang Lijun, has been officially charged with attempting to defect, corruption, and abuse of power. The fate of Bo himself is still unclear.

The Bo scandal has done serious damage to the leadership's plans for a smooth transition of power over the next six months. President Hu , Premier Wen Jia Bao, and other leaders are due to retire and hand over to a new team led by Xi, who is expected to be confirmed at a party congress next month, and take office as president in the spring. Millions of party and government officials around the country are also jockeying for promotions.

Even the date of the party congress has yet to be announced. The sudden postponement of two major events that were to have been held in the Chinese capital in mid-October, the Beijing Marathon, and a large exhibition of police and security equipment, are indications that the congress is imminent. The apparent difficulty in setting a date has done nothing to tamp down talk of factional disputes, and the possibility of more revelations in the Bo scandal.

The succession, meticulously planned for years as a seamless display of well-managed Communist Party rule, has been tainted by revelations of greed, corruption and abuse of power at the highest levels. Xi's mysterious disappearance just weeks before the party congress which is supposed to elevate him to the presidency can only add to the whiff of chaos and uncertainty in the air.