Will Tillerson's Russian Order of Friendship pay dividends in Syria talks?

When Rex Tillerson last visited Moscow, he was CEO of ExxonMobil and shopping for oil and gas deals.

Back then, his credwas in good standing:Russian oil interests wanted Exxon's participation so much that Tillerson wasawarded the highest badge of honour for a foreigner, the Order of Friendship, pinned on him by President Vladimir Putin in 2013.

How times have changed. Tillerson still has his medal, hidden away in some box, but the U.S. secretary of state spent last weekend castigating Russia as "either complicit or incompetent" for failing to contain chemical weapons in Syriaas Russia promised it could, and for failing to ultimately reinin Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president.

By Tuesday, Tilllerson had issued an ultimatum to his friends in Russia, saying's it's either Assad or the U.S.

"We want to relieve the suffering of the Syrian people. Russia can be a part of that future and play an important role," Tillerson said. "Or Russia can maintain its alliance with this group, which we believe is not going to serve Russia's interests longer term."

What a way to head into Wednesday's meetings.

The much-vaunted opening towardwarmer U.S.-Russian relations is quickly closing.Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev posted on Facebook Friday, "That's it,"referencing his exasperation at Trump'spromises during the election campaignto treat Russia differently and the now glaring reality.

Medvedev concluded any trust there might have beenis shattered.

So Wednesday, as Tillerson meets with Russia's veteran Foreign Minister SergeyLavrov, the only consistency with his previous visits is that Tillerson is still looking for a deal but a complex, vexing, high-stakes geopolitical deal that has frustrated his predecessors.

And Tillerson is no longer the CEO of anything. He's got to listen to a lot of puppeteers around him, from the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner (who some suggest acts like a shadow secretary of state)to the national security adviser to President Donald Trump.

A frustrating, often futile exercise

That can't sit comfortably with Tillerson, a man used to running his own show. As JohnKerry, his predecessor in the Obama administration, would attest, striking a deal with Moscow from a seat of limited power is a frustrating and often futile exercise.

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As the U.S. ushered in a new administration in January, Lavrov remarked that Kerry was a "tragic figure"because even where he found compromise and openings in his negotiations with Russia, his efforts were thwarted by the White House,by Congress or by the myriad of U.S. interests pulling the strings from Washington.

That, at least, was Lavrov's summation of Kerry's well-trod path to Moscow.

Can Tillerson perform better?

His task is even more complex, more daunting. In the months beforethe U.S. sentTomahawk missiles raining down Thursday on a Syrian airbase, Trump repeated that America was not interested in pummelling Syria, getting enmiredin its civil war.

The White House and Tillerson seemed to recognize the possibility of Assad staying in power. That changed with stunning speed after the chemical attack on Idlib.

UN Ambassador Nikki Haley said the U.S. cannot imagine a stable and peaceful Syria with Assad in charge. Tillerson stepped away from that hard lineslightly on Monday, saying withceasefire agreements, Syrians themselves coulddecide the future of Assad.

By Tuesday, he hadchanged his tune, saying, "it is clear to all of us that the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end.

"But the question of how that ends and the transition itself could be very important in our view to the durability, the stability inside of a unified Syria."

He's left a slim opening for the Russians to manoeuvre.

But signs are slim that Russia is willing to negotiate. On Monday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said with the airstrikes, "the U.S. has shown its complete unwillingness to somehow interact on Syria and take into account the interests and the concerns of others."

Russia still stands by its blanket defence of Assad as the elected leader of a sovereign state.

Assad may have tipped the balance

But underneath the public rhetoric, Assad may have tipped the balance, and not inhis favour. Putin can't be happy with Assad's recent attack, especially as if it bears out that Syria did not warn Russia first. In 2013 Putin assured the worldhe could help eradicate chemical attacks. Assad just proved his ally wrong, a slight the Kremlin won't take lightly.

Putin will not be meeting Tillersonthis time. Nothing surprising about that. It was always the Kremlin plan that two senior diplomats meet each other before any historic meeting between Putin and Trump.

But what is remarkable is Trump's about-faceon Russia.

Less than two months ago, prospects for this meeting seemed considerably brighter. Even while the Kremlin did not fully endorse the idea that a President Trump would usher in friendlier relations with Russia, a lot of Russians did. And now they are confused, upset, even angry.

What does the U.S. want?

So, against this backdrop, what does the former oil man want from Moscow?

The U.S. still recognizes Russia is the most influential player in Syria and could pressure Assad to end chemical attacks on itscitizens. The U.S. also wants a partner in its fight against ISIS, asdid Russia.Tillerson will also broach the prospects of ceasefire agreements.

Most analysts agree the White House is not interested in a sustained military intervention inside Syria. Tillerson has been saying recently the U.S. wants peace negotiations in Geneva to succeed. But the administration still seems divided on the question of allowing Assad to stay or forcing him out.

The U.S. cannot expect Assad to be immediately removed, as the vacuum of power would further destabilize the region. Killing Moammar Gadhafiin Libya, capturing Saddam Hussein in Iraq and propping up Hamid Karzaiin Afghanistan did not solve those countries' civil wars.

Moscow has tied its political ambition to Syria for the time being; it won't be easily pushed off. Tillerson has to convince Moscow to lean on Assad to stop the chemical warfare and to consider ceasefires.

"We rededicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world," Tillerson said Monday.

But will Tillerson's Order of Friendshipcurry him any unique influencein Moscow?

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