Venezuela at risk of unravelling as economic, energy turmoil deepens

A devastating drought has broughtVenezuela,alreadyfacingeconomic and energy crises amid simmering politicalunrest,to the brink andthreatens the future of the oil-rich nation.

"Simply put, anatural disaster is making aman-made disaster much worse," saidDonald Kingsbury, a professor of political science and Latin American studies at the University of Toronto.

The "man-made disaster," in this case, is a heavilypetroleum-dependent, state-run economy gutted by the precipitous drop in crude oil prices.

Inflation will reach720 per cent some time this year, the InternationalMonetary Fund estimates, and the economy will contract another 10 per cent. Food staples and essential medicinesare increasingly scarce.The costs of basic goods and services has skyrocketed. Incomes, for those lucky enough to stillhave one,are stagnant.

Further, crime rates have reached troubling levels. Venezuela now boasts the world's second-highest per capita homicide rate after Honduras.

"People are fed up, from all over the political and social spectrum. At this point, it may not take much for things to erupt," said Kingsbury.

Theworst drought to hit Venezuela in almost half acentury could be thecatalyst, he said.

Rationing energy

This week, for example, more than 1,000 police and military personnel were deployed to the western city of Maracaibo, where locals blocked roads with flaming barricades andlooted shops for food. About 100 people were arrested.

Other protests were held in cities and towns throughout the countrya direct response to the government's controversial measures to ease theongoing energy crisis, which has beenexacerbated by the drought.

Water levels in the Guri reservoir, which feeds Venezuela'sbiggestand most critical hydroelectric dam, are dangerously low.Up to 70 per cent of the electricity consumed by the country's 30 million citizenscomes from the dam.

Without enough water, the dam is simply unable to satisfy demand.If the water level continues to drop, it is not out of the realm of possibility that vast swathes of the sixth-largest nationin South America could be without power.

So PresidentNicols Maduro's deeply unpopular administration recentlystarted rationing electricity.With a few exceptions, notably Caracas, most areas of the countrysee daily four-hour blackouts at differenttimes.

'People are very, very angry'

Just days after the rationing program kicked in, the governmentannounced that more than 2.5 million public sector employees will work only two days a week, ostensibly to reduce day-time demand for electricity.

The moves have been met with suspicion and anger, especially outside of the capital city, says Juan Nagel, a Venezuelan currently teachingeconomics atUniversidadde los Andes in Santiago, Chile,and co-editor of the blog Caracas Chronicles.

"The feeling is that they spared Caracas blackouts because they feared a major backlash in the capital.Maduro knew it could backfire in a big way," Nagel said.

"The rest of the country sees it as unfair, and people are very, very angry. I think they're unsure about how to channel that rage, but surely, it will come out in some way."

Adding to the tension currently engulfing Venezuela is a nasty and deeply polarizing political battle that could see Maduro recalled and ousted from power.

'They want to strike'

The hand-picked successor of former presidentand socialist icon HugoChavez, Maduro has struggled to hang on to support, even among Chavistas, as Chavez's supporters are called. He was dealt a crushing blow last December, when a coalition of mostly right-leaning, pro-capitalist political parties won an overwhelming majority in the legislature.

"They know Maduro's approval ratings are in the basement, and they want to strike," said Kingsbury. "[The coalition] only stands to benefit from the situation getting worse before it gets better."

This week, the coalition initiated the Byzantine legal process that could trigger a presidentialelection. Nagel, however,is skeptical it will be successfulsince Maduro still commands the loyalty ofthe country's highest court, which has the power to kibosh attempts to oust him.

ThoughChavez was, and remains,one of the most divisive political figures in recent history, he unquestionably used Venezuela's oil revenue to make "important investments in human welfare that will pay dividends in a generation," according to Kingsbury.

"Venezuela could now beon the brink of unravelling any of the social progress that was made ... I wish I could be more optimistic about its future than I am."