Zelensky, Putin videos provide glimpse of evolving deepfake threat, experts say

More people know Volodymyr Zelensky's face than ever beforeas thepresident leads Ukraine in a fight against aRussian invasion that'snow in its fourth week.

In turn,a headline-grabbing deepfakevideorecently targeted Zelensky'shigh level of visibility, by putting words in hismouth that he never said.

The fakeZelensky video purported to showthe president telling Ukrainians to lay down their arms afalse claim thatthe real Zelensky deemed a "childish provocation" amid a life-and-death war.

Experts say thisdeepfakefailmay not have been particularly convincing, but what's troubling is how more advanced versions of suchdeceptioncould wreak havoc in the future.

"We could see more that are much more impressive, much more sophisticated andmuch more difficultto figure out if [they're]real or not," said Abby MacDonald, a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institutewho specializes in security and defence policy.

A range of deepfakery

Deepfakeshave been in existence for years, well before the war in Ukrainestarted last month, drawing muchmedia attention and concern about their use and abuse, as well as theirreach on social media.

MacDonaldsaid they exist on a gradient, from low-tech "cheap fakes" that are produced withmorebasic software,tosophisticated deepfakesthat make use of artificial intelligence and more advancedcomputing to produce more realistic-looking end products.

"I think deepfakes have in the past few years been coming more to the forefront," said MacDonald, who recently authored a paperabout the policy implications of deepfakes.

The wartime appearance of a Zelensky-focuseddeepfakedidn't come as a surprise to those watching the conflict in Ukraine closely, even if its specific provenanceisn'tcompletely clear.

"I definitely think it's something I would have expected to see emerge," Alyssa Demus, a senior policy analyst at the think-tank the Rand Corporation, said in an interview from Santa Monica, Calif.

"I don't know if it's created by a state actor, or an affiliated proxy or somethingor by just [someone] on the internet trying to fool people."

Benjamin Jensen, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., somewhatexpected to see deepfakes deployedbefore this point in the war.

"I'm surprised it took this long and we didn't see more of them during the mobilization phase," said Jensen, who believes they are unlikely to sway opinion this far into the Russian invasion.

Not just Zelensky

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also been the subject ofa manipulated video that has circulated during the invasion.

The video, shared on social media, claimed to show Putin declaring peace had been achieved with Ukraine.

No such declaration has happened and the war continues to grind on.

Eliot Borenstein, a professor of Russian and Slavic Studiesat New York University (NYU), questioned how either of the publiclydebunked Zelensky or Putin videos could be productive for any of the actors in the conflict.

Ithink the real big question is:Are we going to see more of it, in general, throughout the world? And that's really horrifying.- Eliot Borenstein, professor at New York University, on deepfake videos

"What seems to be the intent is to get people confused about whether the opposing side or their own side is continuing the war," said Borenstein.

"And I'm just not sure how how effective that really could be in terms of, say, combat."

Marta Dyczok, an associate professor of history and political science at Western University in London, Ont., saidthe dispellingof the validity of these videos may help Ukraine demonstrate that Russia's efforts along these lines aren't working.

"You're trying this deepfake thing and you can't do it."

A more complex world

The presenceof deepfakesis one thing. Defending against them is another. Both are concerns that extendwell beyond Ukraine's borders.

"Ithink the real big question is:Are we going to see more of it, in general, throughout the world? And that's really horrifying," said Borenstein.

"The fact is that we've been seeing deepfakes already and so far, it'sfairly easy to debunk them, fairly easy to show where they've come from. But I imagine in a little while it won't be."

Over the long term, MacDonaldsaid, it will be key to improve our capacity to identify and disprove deepfakes.

"Like all cybersecurity issues, this is the kind of thing that it's constantly evolving, and it's really hard to keep up and it's really hard to co-ordinate. So, I think that is going to be a challenge," the security expert said.

She said it will also be important to improve people's digital literacy andensure they are more critical about the media they consume.