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Watching for potential Oscar upsets - Things That Go Pop!

Watching for potential Oscar upsets

Oscars red carpetWorkers roll out the red carpet at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles on Wednesday, ahead of Sunday's Oscars telecast. (Chris Carlson/Associated Press)

Well, that's it. Academy Award voting is officially closed: the final deadline for ballots was Tuesday at 5PM PT.

Although the film industry at large remains in panic mode, after months of predictions, audiences can now sit back and wait for the likes of Russell Brand and Scarlett Johansson to rip open the envelope and breathlessly utter the words "and the Oscar goes to."

Considering the 2011 Oscar nominees, it's been a strong year of film for movie fans. Take a look at the best picture list: Black Swan, The Fighter, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone, The Social Network, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech and Inception. Those 10 films represent chewy cinematic goodness -- well, except for Toy Story 3, which I didn't much care for. Still, it'll win for best animated picture and keep the Pixar acolytes happy.

However, the problem with the Oscar race this year is that it seemed over before it began. Essentially there have been two phases. Until December, just about every critic in the world united to anoint The Social Network as Citizen Kane for the Twitter generation.

Then, The King's Speech began winning awards: the SAGs, the BAFTAs, the PGAs. This Sunday now looks to be nothing less than a formality, with the movie about the plucky, stuttering regent expected to reign over all Oscardom.

But rest easy, dear readers, for all is not certain. And if the movie Crash taught us anything (besides the fact that racism is baaaaad), it's that academy voters are a wily bunch.

So, I've gather below some possible surprises. Don't think of them as predictions, but possibilities for upset on Oscar night.

Best Actress:

The best actress competition could be dubbed the battle of "the dramatic transformation" versus "the veteran who is due." Natalie Portman seems a lock for her role as Black Swan's deranged dancer. Playing what is essentially two roles and training for years is exactly the kind of commitment voters swoon for. And there's that certain glow she has.

However, what Annette Bening has going for her is experience. She's well liked within the academy and her performance as Nic, the stoic lesbian, doctor and mom in The Kids Are All Right, would be a great opportunity to reward the actress. Just as with Jeff Bridges in 2010 (Crazy Heart), if Bening wins it wouldn't be for the craft in her performance (and despite her mean rendition of Joni Mitchell's All I Want). Rather, it would be because "it's her turn."

Best Supporting Actress:

The consensus is that Melissa Leo will win for her role as Alice Ward in The Fighter. Even Leo's head-scratching, DIY Oscar campaign hasn't seemed to hurt her chances. Her beehive hairdo alone should win some special commendation. If she does stumble, look to Hailee Steinfeld to steal the category for her performance as Mattie Ross in True Grit. Yes she's only 14, but any actress who can make a Coen Brothers script sing certainly deserves a taste of Oscar gold.

Best Director:

While many have come to terms with The King's Speech winning best picture, The Social Network might get a consolation prize of sorts if David Fincher wins for best director.

But, if The King's Speech starts racking up trophies early on during the Oscar gala, it could mean good things for director Tom Hooper. He's already received awards from BAFTA, the Directors Guild and the Broadcast Film Critics Association. Is another Slumdog snowball coming? Enunciate with me: Per-haps.

Best Foreign Language Film:

This category is where Canada has its strongest chance. The front-runner remains Biutiful, featuring Javier Bardem's searing performance as Uxbal. Directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, the drama is a bitter, but beautiful pill to swallow.

That may explain the groundswell of support for Canadian Denis Villeneuve's Incendies. While no one would call Villeneuve's movie a feel-good film, the strong resolution and intricate plot may sit better with Oscar voters. Not everyone is a fan, but since this is one category where voters must see every movie in order to cast their ballot, this could work in Incendies's favour.

-- Eli Glasner